A Changing Mission in Iraq

In his speech [last] Monday, Mr. Obama called the Aug. 31 deadline for the military to bring the number of troops down to 50,000 the closing of a chapter.

To an American audience, it might resonate that way. Less so to Iraqis. Unlike last year, Iraqi officials, mired in disputes often more personal than political, are not trumpeting the withdrawal as an assertion of an Iraqi authority. ...

Saud al-Saadi, an eloquent and informed teacher in Sadr City, was aware [of the deadline]. But, he said, he had heard such pronouncements before, declarations of turning points in America’s experience here that seemed to hew to the logic of American politics. The American occupation was declared over before the 2004 presidential election. The two countries signed strategic agreements weeks before the Bush administration ended. “But until now, to tell you the truth, we haven’t grasped our sovereignty,” Mr. Saadi said. “There are still American troops here, they still raid houses, we don’t have a government that makes its own decisions and the American ambassador still interferes.”

Mr. Saadi was neither angry nor disillusioned. And in his matter-of-fact appraisal, there was a hint of common ground between a teacher and a president. Mr. Obama did not trumpet democracy or victory. There was no reference to a mission accomplished. In a sober appraisal, he acknowledged that there would be more American sacrifice here. Access the full article>>

In 2006, government formation took almost six months. It is difficult to predict a timeline for the current process, but Iraqis characterize the present situation as more complex than 2006 due to a combination of internal and external factors.

The first source of increased complexity is the nature of the electoral coalitions and hence the election results in 2010. In 2006, the grand Shiite electoral alliance won 47 percent of the parliamentary seats and it was clear that this entity would nominate the prime minister. In 2009, Prime Minister Maliki split from the unified “Shia house” to form his own separate list, the State of Law (SoL). This consequential decision resulted in the inconclusive nature of the March 2010 election results ... The closeness of the results has left it unclear which bloc will nominate the prime minister, has stimulated electoral appeals and constitutional disputes over government formation procedures, and has led to painstaking coalition-building efforts.

Stepping back from the intricacies of government formation, the second source of complexity is the experience of the last four years. As one parliament member (MP) in the State of Law list frankly admitted, the prime minister position has grown in importance so as to “dominate everything.”

The manner in which this enhanced power has been wielded—much as Maliki’s broadly popular campaign against the Sadrists’ Mahdi Army in 2008 or the establishment of special military units that report directly to the prime minister’s office—has been widely noted across the political spectrum. The bottom line is that the authority of the premiership has increased—thus making the compensation prize of other posts less appealing.

Finally, the complexity of the government formation process in 2010 results from increased involvement of regional actors. Many Iraqis view neighboring countries as vying to fill the space left by the declining American presence in Iraq. ... This interference is generally resented by Iraqis who perceive their neighbors as taking advantage of Iraq’s difficult circumstances in order to secure their own interests in a country that has historically been of pivotal importance to the region and has tremendous energy potential. Access the full article>>

Years after Saddam Hussein’s long and bloody reign over Iraq and former U.S. President George W. Bush’s brutal invasion of the country, a general election earlier this year held the potential to set the country on a course away from sectarianism and toward stability.

Yet politicians have since been unable to form a coalition government and plant the seeds of stability in their country, preferring to take their citizens hostage in their political rivalries, rather than to come to terms with each other. For them, Iraq has become a prized bull on which they have thrown a noose.

The results of this mad competition have become an all-too familiar sight. As political violence continues to take a toll on Iraqi civilians, we have grown accustomed to images of devastated streets in places like Baghdad and Fallujah and of traumatized Iraqis weeping among rubble and debris. …

The blame, arguably, was once squarely laid on the shoulders of a misguided U.S. leadership. But today, as Iraqis hold the reigns of their country anew, this responsibility has shifted, and it can be attributed first and foremost to the unwillingness of the Iraqi leaders to dream of their nation’s future as one. …

Iraq’s neighbors have unfortunately exacerbated the intensity of the country’s political quagmire by assisting proxies aligned with their sects rather than judging them on their ability to govern.

Competing politicians and powers will, however, eventually have to come to grip with reality: Iraq is indeed a prized bull, but one that is too big to be controlled by one. Access the full article>>

James F. Jeffrey, U.S. ambassador to Iraq designate, former principal deputy assistant secretary of state for the Near East, senior adviser to the Secretary of State for Iraq, U.S. deputy chief of mission and U.S. chargé d'affaires in Iraq; testimony before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, July 20, 2010:

“There will be ongoing military cooperation as our relationship with Iraq evolves. For the time being, Iraqi security forces still require certain assistance with logistics and meeting some other operational requirements. While the remaining U.S. forces will continue to provide training and mentoring until their departure by the end of 2011, the hard work of maintaining security and stability is an Iraqi responsibility, and Iraqi forces are showing they are increasingly able to meet that responsibility. …

“We now look to Iraq’s leaders to take the steps that will complement the gains made in security. At the top of that list, in my view, is government formation. It has now been more than four months since the people of Iraq voted in national elections, and still no successor government is in place. This is an Iraqi matter, and I want to emphasize that the United States is not taking sides in the negotiations underway among the various parties. We are, however, stressing to political leaders that they must get on with the job. That means they must make compromises even if that requires giving up personal ambitions or partisan agendas. This process must result in the formation of a truly representative government that enjoys broad acceptance and meets the needs and aspirations of all Iraqis.

“While it is unsettling to see this government formation process drag on, it is an encouraging sign that Iraq’s political leaders are engaged in earnest discussions. The Iraqi people want movement on the major problems that still bedevil them in their daily lives, like electricity and water shortages, lack of employment opportunities, and corruption. There is a need for decisive government action across a broad range of national problems. But the Iraq of 2010 is not the Iraq of 2006, the last time we had a prolonged government formation process. Unlike in 2006, the dangerous power vacuum and violent instability that some predicted have not developed. The caretaker government continues to provide basic services and salaries, and the security forces continue to maintain stability on the streets. Iraq is better off than when I left it in 2005 and the elements necessary for Iraq’s success are present.”

Top-Down Track
Proximity Talks
Special Envoy for Middle East Peace George Mitchell is concluding his sixth round of talks this week, which have included meetings with Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, Arab League Secretary General Amr Moussa, Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahayan, Qatari Prime Minister Sheik Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani and French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner. Plans for proximity talks were announced in March, but the first round did not begin until May 9 due to contention over Israeli settlement expansion in East Jerusalem. The discussions, which are being held in private, are focused on reconciling the goals of the Israelis and Palestinians. The Israeli government would like to use the discussions as a stepping stone to direct talks while the Palestinian Authority (PA) wants to make sufficient progress on security and borders as a means of assessing Israel’s seriousness before entering into direct talks.

Additional Administration Diplomatic and Security Efforts
In May, President Obama asked Congress to approve $205 million for Israel's Iron Dome system. Additionally, among other defense cooperation efforts, the United States continues to ensure Israel’s Qualitative Military Edge; it provided Israel with $2.775 billion per year in security assistance in FY 2010; and recently concluded a 1,000 person joint military exercise, the largest ever between the countries.

Following the raid on the Mavi Marmara, the lead ship in the six-vessel flotilla attempting to break the maritime closure of the Gaza Strip, President Obama supported a United Nations Security Council statement on June 1 which condemned the actions aboard the flotilla and called for an impartial investigation. Obama described the Gaza situation and broader conflict as unsustainable in the long-term. On June 14, the White House declared its support for an internal Israeli investigation into the flotilla incident. Israel responded to mounting international pressure by easing the blockade on June 20, a move applauded by the United States. Details of the plan were publicized on July 5, coinciding with a meeting between Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak and PA Prime Minister Salam Fayyad.

President Abbas visited the White House on June 9. Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak met with Secretary of State Hillary Clinton on June 23 and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with Obama in Washington on July 6, his fifth visit during the Obama administration. On July 8, Obama sat for an interview with Israel’s Channel 2 television network and on July 9, Obama spoke with Abbas on the phone about the situation in the region.

Bottom-Up Track
The Obama administration works in close coordination with the international community and the Office of the Quartet Representative to support the institution-building work of the PA. Examples of this work include:

Economic Sector: The United States provided financial, organizational and promotional support for the June 2-3 Palestine Investment Conference (PIC), which culminated with France, Italy and the United States pledging a combined $655 million for institution building in the West Bank. In addition, during Abbas’ White House visit, the United States announced $400 million to the PA for housing, education and infrastructure in the Gaza Strip and West Bank. Two-hundred and forty million dollars of this amount is allocated for the creation of a landmark affordable mortgage finance facility which will double the number of Palestinians able to purchase homes.

Security Sector: The United States continues to coordinate with Britain, Canada and Jordan in training Palestinian security forces; five battalions have already deployed in major West Bank cities. The United States is also supporting ongoing efforts to build and upgrade PA training centers and other installations, and assisting the PA Interior Ministry with strategic security planning.

Governance: The U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) supports ongoing projects that promote democracy and governance in the Palestinian territories. On June 2, USAID pledged $25 million to facilitate PA efforts to develop a legislative and regulatory framework to promote investment and commerce.

Movement and Access: In May, USAID gave authority over three reconstructed roads to the PA. Reconstruction cost $5.7 million and included work on the Atarah-Ramallah road, which connects the northern West Bank to Ramallah. USAID and Special Envoy for Middle East Peace George Mitchell are continuing to work with the Israeli Ministry of Defense to improve movement and access at checkpoints and border crossings.

Regional Track
- In addition to previously mentioned visits by Israeli and Palestinian officials, heads of state from Bahrain, Kuwait, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia and Turkey also visited Washington to discuss regional and bilateral issues.
- Vice President Joseph R. Biden visited Egypt on June 6 to discuss new ways forward on the Gaza blockade. The next day Egypt declared that it would keep its Rafah checkpoint open indefinitely to allow eligible Gazans to cross the border.
- Robert Ford’s confirmation to be the first U.S. ambassador to Syria since the assassination of Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri in 2005 was delayed because of speculation that Syria provided Hezbollah with long-range Scud missiles. Senate Foreign Relations Committee chairman John Kerry visited Damascus on May 23 to discuss these concerns. In early July, Senator Arlen Specter (D-PA) met with Syrian President Bashar Assad in Damascus. Ynet reported that Specter delivered a message from Israeli Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon to Assad during his visit.

For more information on the Obama administration’s efforts towards Middle East peace before March see our background basics from March 23 and September 22.