Addressing the Gaza Ticking Time Bomb One Year after the Hamas Takeover
By Brian Katulis, senior fellow, Center for American Progress, adviser Middle East Progress and Moran Banai, U.S. editor, Middle East Bulletin. Original commentary for Middle East Bulletin.
In the year since Hamas took control of Gaza by force, the situation has deteriorated dramatically for both Palestinians and Israelis. Since last June, Palestinian militant groups have barraged Israel with thousands of rocket and mortar attacks, putting the Israelis who live on Gaza’s border under constant threat and taking a severe toll on their communities and on the country. Israeli military strikes in Gaza have resulted in hundreds of Palestinians dead. An Israeli military incursion into Gaza in late February led Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas to temporarily suspend peace talks.
Under these circumstances, Gaza presents many ticking time bombs—ones that left unattended could derail broader efforts to revive the peace process. To prevent that from happening, the United States, working with key regional and global allies, needs to take the lead in focusing on measures to improve the quality of life in Gaza, provide Gazans with the hope for a better future, and initiate a plan to deescalate the violence. At the same time, the Palestinian leadership in Ramallah must demonstrate that it is cognizant of the difficulties of life in Gaza and that it is working assiduously to improve the situation.
The first priority should be taking practical steps that find a way to improve the quality of life of Palestinians living in the Gaza Strip while taking into account Israel’s critical security concerns. Gazans should see that the policy of isolating Hamas is not intended to punish them. Such steps would demonstrate to Palestinians in Gaza that the United States and the international community are concerned about their present and future and serve the long-term interests of all actors in the region.
Palestinians in both the West Bank and Gaza Strip have seen their economic well-being decline in recent years, in large part due to the conflict. According to the World Bank, per capita gross domestic product among the Palestinians has declined by nearly 40 percent since 1999. Last year, Palestinians experienced zero economic growth, which translates into a decline in income due to Palestinian population increases.
Gaza’s 1.5 million people have faced particular hardships, with double digit unemployment and even greater restrictions on movement and access than Palestinians in the West Bank. Since the Hamas takeover last year, Israel has imposed closures on border crossings with Gaza, allowing United Nations shipments of basic staples to prevent a humanitarian disaster. The closures at border crossings have contributed to fuel and cement shortages, and they have also impeded Palestinian businesses engaging in trade and commerce. Because Hamas controls the materials after they come across the border into Gaza, the way it decides to distribute necessary goods actually makes the situation worse for ordinary Gazans – trying to manipulate distribution to boost their support.
The closures made a dire situation for many ordinary Palestinians even more desperate, a desperation that was vividly seen in January when tens of thousands of Palestinians spilled across the border into Egypt after Hamas led an effort to tear down the border wall between the Gaza Strip and Egypt. Palestinians streamed across the border into Egypt to buy basic goods like medicine and gasoline. Because Hamas led the effort to tear down the wall, many Palestinians gave it the credit. Fatan Hessin, a Palestinian woman who crossed the border to buy flour, told a reporter, “This is the best thing they [Hamas members] have ever done.” The border was eventually resealed, but Hamas gained a boost in popularity because it offered something tangible–in this case, a temporary respite from closures. Responding to the basic needs of ordinary citizens is a centerpiece of the struggle—and if the United States and its allies in the Palestinian Authority (PA) and across the region can be viewed as delivering on these basic needs, it will boost their credibility and help marginalize extremist groups.
The United States should put a higher priority on achieving gains for the basic needs of Gazans and providing them with a horizon; taking small steps presents an opportunity for gaining some traction and ultimately stabilizing the situation. If the United States and its allies are seen to be taking concrete steps to improve the lives of Gazans, it will have multiple positive effects—not only will it improve the quality of life for millions of Palestinians, it will enhance the ability of the United States to move the Israeli-Palestinian peace track forward.
That is why mistakes like the State Department’s decision to rescind Fulbright scholarships for seven students under the assumption that they would be unable to get out of Gaza—a decision reversed earlier this month after an outcry—can do real damage. Taking back the opportunity for seven of Gaza’s brightest young people to come to learn about the United States, share their own stories and experiences with Americans, and go back to Gaza with important skills and knowledge for building a Palestinian state sent exactly the wrong message.
An essential concrete step that the United States can take is concerted diplomacy with Israel, the Palestinian Authority and Egypt to allow border crossings to reopen under the control of the Palestinian Authority, in accordance with the proposals by Abbas and Fayyad after Hamas’ takeover. Egypt’s direct involvement in striking a deal on the reopening of border crossings is particularly important, and the United States should develop a focused diplomatic effort that builds confidence among Israeli officials and encourages a new deal that puts the Palestinian Authority back in control of the border crossings. PA control of the crossings would allow for their reopening, significantly improving life in Gaza and providing the PA with a demonstrable achievement.
The second top priority for the United States must be encouraging a de-escalation of tensions in Gaza. As Ghaith Al-Omari, a former foreign policy adviser to President Abbas argued in the Middle East Bulletin last month, a key objective should be to reach “security stabilization with Hamas without paying too high a political price.” As Al-Omari argued, an Arab country that already has relations with Hamas such as Egypt could broker a de-escalation package; such discussions and efforts have been underway for months, and the United States should offer quiet support for these efforts as a means to avoid an expansion of the conflict. A de-escalation should aim to get a commitment from Hamas leaders to stop the rocket and mortar attacks with the aim of achieving calm on Israel’s southern borders. The issue of kidnapped soldier Gilad Shalit, who was captured at the Kerem Shalom crossing nearly two years ago, and the possibility for prisoner exchanges, will likely have to be part of a de-escalation package.
There are growing signs that Palestinians in Gaza believe that Hamas has overreached—a recent public opinion poll released by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research in early June showed a drop in public support for Hamas in both the Gaza Strip and the West Bank. The dire economic situation may be turning many Palestinians in Gaza against Hamas. The United States and the international community must take steps to ensure they see an alternative.
Defusing the Gaza time bombs requires taking tangible steps on the Annapolis process that began last November. Since the conference, President George W. Bush and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice have made multiple visits to the region, but achieved only meager results. General Jim Jones and Lieutenant-General William Fraser were appointed as envoys to respectively work on regional security and monitor Israeli and Palestinian implementation of the Road Map, such as improving movement and access by removing checkpoints and barriers in the West Bank and improving the security capabilities of Palestinian security forces. While some progress has been made, the part-time nature of these appointments and the lack of support given to the envoys has stymied any significant progress. In addition, the administration has not been actively engaged with the two parties on the stumbling negotiating process. While Secretary Rice this week for the first time asked to be involved in the negotiations, what is needed is a U.S. presence, or at least engagement in the process that can provide encouragement, flexibility and ideas for bridging solutions for problems that seem intractable to the two sides. An example of what can be achieved by envoys whose time and resources have been dedicated specifically to their work on resolving the conflict is the work of Lieutenant-General Keith Dayton, U.S. Security Coordinator for the Israel-Palestinian Authority. Dayton has been working to train Palestinian security forces that have so far deployed relatively successfully in Nablus and Jenin.
A final peace deal before President Bush leaves office continues to seem elusive, but President Abbas needs to demonstrate to the Palestinian people that his path of negotiations can bring results. Taking concrete steps to defuse the crisis in Gaza can prevent broader instability as well as revitalize a peace process that has suffered from too much inattention for years.