Israeli-Egyptian Peace In Danger?

Here’s an ominous exchange in today’s Washington Post interview with Jordanian King Abdullah:

Q: [The Arab Spring] is a disaster for Israel, isn’t it?

You have seen what has happened in Egypt [and] Turkey. We are actually the last man standing with our relationship with Israel.

Q: The Israelis are worried the Egyptians will break the [peace] treaty.

That is a very, very strong possibility.

But in Foreign Policy, former Washington Post Jerusalem bureau chief Janine Zacharia writes, "Egypt’s role in brokering the exchange of Shalit for over a thousand Palestinian prisoners demonstrated that fears of a major break between Egypt and Israel have been wildly overstated."

While the Israeli government, Hamas, and other regional actors did their part, there is no question that Egypt played the pivotal role in finally resolving the Shalit affair. Cairo mediated the deal, arranged for Shalit’s safe return to Israel, and organized the flights for the 40 Palestinian prisoners who were sent into exile in Turkey, Qatar, and Syria. Egyptian diplomats are understandably proud of their accomplishment. Egypt, which considers itself the most important Arab state, demonstrated for the first time in many years that it could achieve a difficult diplomatic objective. Despite the anti-Israel rhetoric of Egyptian politicians playing to the Cairo crowds as they prepare for parliamentary elections slated to take place next month, Shalit’s release showed that Israeli-Egyptian ties are surviving, even thriving, in the post-Mubarak era. [...]

It wasn’t out of love for Israel that Egypt mediated Shalit’s release. Egypt’s military sees a vital self interest in keeping the Israeli-Egyptian peace treaty robust. Egypt has its own security interests. Its primary concerns are preserving stability in Gaza, with which it shares a border, and maintaining order in the Sinai, where it has sought to stop smuggling. Another objective of Egypt’s interim military leadership is to ease pressure at home, where demonstrators have sharply criticized the current government for undercutting democracy. "The agreement and the deal are a medal on Egypt’s chest to be added to the several medals that it deservedly earned for its ongoing defense and support of the Palestinian cause," one commentator wrote in Al-Akhbar, Egypt’s mass-circulation, pro-government daily.

Even more important is Egypt’s desire to reassure the United States that it remains a reliable regional partner. Just three weeks before Shalit’s release, Egypt’s foreign minister, Mohamed Amr, told the Associated Press, that Egypt was seeking ways to strengthen its "strategic relationship" with the United States, and pledged that Egypt remained committed to the peace treaty with Israel, despite the comments by the Prime Minister and the Arab League Secretary General to the contrary. The U.S. Congress has been making highly public noises about conditioning or reducing military aid to Egypt, a threat that the Egyptian military and its lobbyists take very seriously. President Barack Obama called Egypt’s de facto leader, Field Marshal Mohamed Hussein Tantawi, on Monday to push the military to end emergency law and military trials, and to advance the date for presidential elections. The Egyptian military believes that demonstrating its solid ties with Israel is key to blunting such U.S. pressure.

Read the whole thing.