July 14, 2011

The Iranian government is worried about the demonstrations in Syria, and the possible fall of Syrian president Bashar Al Assad.

Such concerns are valid.

The Assad family has been a staunch ally of the Islamic Republic since the early 1980s. The fall of Mr Al Assad could have numerous negative implications for Iran’s government in terms of foreign policy influence. First and foremost is the question of access to millions of dollars worth of investment in Syria, in sectors ranging from agriculture, tourism and auto manufacturing, which could all be lost.

This is in addition to the possible closure of Syrian territory as a transit point to supply weapons to Hizbollah in Lebanon. Mr Al Assad’s fall could also mean Syria will cease to host groups such as Hamas and Islamic Jihad on its soil.

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