In 2006, government formation took almost six months. It is difficult to predict a timeline for the current process, but Iraqis characterize the present situation as more complex than 2006 due to a combination of internal and external factors.
The first source of increased complexity is the nature of the electoral coalitions and hence the election results in 2010. In 2006, the grand Shiite electoral alliance won 47 percent of the parliamentary seats and it was clear that this entity would nominate the prime minister. In 2009, Prime Minister Maliki split from the unified “Shia house” to form his own separate list, the State of Law (SoL). This consequential decision resulted in the inconclusive nature of the March 2010 election results … The closeness of the results has left it unclear which bloc will nominate the prime minister, has stimulated electoral appeals and constitutional disputes over government formation procedures, and has led to painstaking coalition-building efforts.
Stepping back from the intricacies of government formation, the second source of complexity is the experience of the last four years. As one parliament member (MP) in the State of Law list frankly admitted, the prime minister position has grown in importance so as to “dominate everything.”
The manner in which this enhanced power has been wielded—much as Maliki’s broadly popular campaign against the Sadrists’ Mahdi Army in 2008 or the establishment of special military units that report directly to the prime minister’s office—has been widely noted across the political spectrum. The bottom line is that the authority of the premiership has increased—thus making the compensation prize of other posts less appealing.
Finally, the complexity of the government formation process in 2010 results from increased involvement of regional actors. Many Iraqis view neighboring countries as vying to fill the space left by the declining American presence in Iraq. … This interference is generally resented by Iraqis who perceive their neighbors as taking advantage of Iraq’s difficult circumstances in order to secure their own interests in a country that has historically been of pivotal importance to the region and has tremendous energy potential. Access the full article>>
