President Mubarak before surgery (AP)
Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak appeared on Egyptian television on Tuesday speaking to his doctors after undergoing surgery in Germany on March 6. For ten days following his hospitalization, Mubarak made no public appearances. His disappearance led to a drop in Cairo’s stock market on Monday and sparked a wave of rumors as to who will succeed the 81 year-old leader who has been in power for 28 years. Questions about Mubarak’s succession and how such a transition will affect the Middle East continue to swirl in Egypt and the region.
Below are a few pieces analyzing the situation in Egypt and its regional implications.
Anxiety on Succession in Egypt as Mubarak Recovers
by Mona Salem (Agence France-Presse)
Ten days after Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak underwent surgery in Germany, there is growing uncertainty over his state of health and increased talk about who will eventually succeed him. …
Analysts say the president’s health, usually a closely guarded secret that has led to journalists being punished for questioning it, has intensified talk over his eventual succession. “We face many questions. What would happen if harm befell the president, or whether he could carry out his role until the end of his fifth term,” said Imad Gad, an analyst with the Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies. …
Like many analysts, Gad does not believe the 46-year-old Gamal, a former investment banker who now holds an influential policy making post in his father’s National Democratic Party, has much chance of becoming next president. … Several people have been talked about as successors, including the powerful head of intelligence, Omar Suleiman. Another possible candidate, Mohammed ElBaradei, the former chief UN nuclear watchdog, has popular support and leadership capabilities, Shobaki said. But he is not supported by government agencies and at any rate has conditioned running on constitutional reforms that Mubarak has dismissed. Access the full article>>
For more on Egypt’s leadership and succession see our Background Basics Egypt’s Important Political Players.
Mubarak, Egypt Regime Change and Israel
by Amos Harel and Avi Issacharoff (Haaretz)
The reports from the Heidelberg hospital have sparked concern and tensions in all of Israel’s neighboring states. Given Mubarak’s advanced age and his recent medical history, an operation is no trivial affair. And as this region tends to do in circumstances such as these, the more concealment there is, the more speculation there is. One thing is clear, whether in the next few months or in the next year or two, Mubarak’s rule of almost 30 years is nearing an end.
Although Israel has not said so publicly, it is particularly sensitive to the news emerging from Cairo. The cold peace with Egypt—the characteristic hostility of the elite and the media notwithstanding—is one of Israel’s top strategic assets, second only to its alliance with the United States. And even though Egypt has not disguised its disgust with Israel over settlement construction and the killing of Palestinians, the two countries see eye-to-eye on a number of lower-profile issues.
Cairo views Jerusalem as a de facto partner in the moderate camp in the region, trying to stop the influence of the radical axis led by Iran. Even during Operation Cast Lead, despite international criticism of Israel, both states were hyper aware of this goal. Access the full article>>
For more on Egyptian Actions During and After the Gaza Conflict see our Background Basics.
Obstacles to Presidential Change in Egypt: What ElBaradei and Others Face
by Marina Ottaway, director, Middle East Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (The Daily Star)
The return to Egypt of Mohamed ElBaradei, the recently retired head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, on February 19 has injected new vitality and even a sense of hope in the Egyptian opposition, beleaguered by an increasingly repressive government and somewhat discouraged by its own ineffectiveness. Despite the fast approach of a political season dense with elections (for the Shura Council in June, the People’s Assembly in November and the presidency in 2011), the Egyptian opposition is at a low point. …
Despite the new ferment engendered by the return of ElBaradei, there are serious obstacles to the emergence of a strong opposition able to compete seriously for parliamentary seats and for the presidency. The first obstacle is political. The opposition consists of three poorly connected segments: weak political parties; liberal civil society organizations which draw their constituency largely from the urban educated class; … and a growing labor protest movement. … The second obstacle is legal: the Constitution, particularly as amended in 2005 and 2007, and much legislation including emergency laws, laws on political parties and elections make it very difficult for the opposition to organize and for viable presidential candidates to emerge. This is clearly reflected in the dilemma faced by ElBaradei at present: for all the buzz his return has created and for all the efforts by civil society groups to gather signatures on a petition for him to run, it is virtually impossible for ElBaradei to become a candidate unless the Constitution is amended. Access the full article>>
Egyptian Opposition’s Push for Reforms Hits Bumpy Road
by Ramadan Al Sherbini (Gulf News)
A call by four Egyptian opposition parties for drastic constitutional reforms is unlikely to bear fruit any time soon, experts said. “In the first place, these parties do not have enough clout either in the parliament or among ordinary Egyptians,” said Mahmoud Faraj, a political analyst. “Their call is part of the resurgence of political life in Egypt stirred by the homecoming of Mohammad Al Baradei,” he added, referring to the former chief of the UN nuclear watchdog, who is a potential contender in Egypt’s 2011 presidential elections.
The four secular parties of Al Wafd, Tagmuah, the Nasserists and the Democratic Front on Monday called for scrapping constitutional articles, which they said consecrate monopoly of power and hamper free elections. “The key to democratization in the next period is to cancel all restrictive constitutional articles, which monopolizes power by a single person and give the executive power the upper hand over other powers,” the four parties, members of the Coalition of Parties for Change, said in a statement. … While calling for co-operation among all political powers to “peacefully” bring about changes in Egypt, leaders of the four parties were keen to shun the Muslim Brotherhood, Egypt’s banned but powerful opposition. Access the full article>>
Cairo’s Plan B
by Gamal A. G. Soltan, director, Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies (bitterlemons-international.org)
No more ad hoc arrangements. This is the message Egypt is sending to Hamas and the other relevant parties by setting up a fortified barrier along Egypt’s border with the Gaza Strip.
The Egyptian move marks the end of an era in Egypt’s policy toward Gaza and Hamas. … Following Hamas’ victory in Palestine’s legislative elections of 2006 and the Islamists’ takeover in Gaza the following year, Hamas became Egypt’s neighbor. While Egypt’s border with Gaza granted Cairo effective leverage against the radical Islamic organization, Hamas was also given an opportunity to press Egypt in exchange.
The past two years have witnessed complex maneuvers between Egypt and the Hamas government in Gaza. While Egypt has tried to accommodate Hamas so that Palestinian unity could be restored, Hamas sought to consolidate its grip on power in Gaza and enhance its position in Palestinian politics. Egypt employed tactics of cooptation and containment while Hamas was buying time, hoping it could exploit opportunities as they arose. The Egyptian strategy reached deadlock when Hamas defied Cairo’s efforts to reconcile rival Palestinian factions. …
Thus the failure of national reconciliation talks in Gaza prompted Egypt to begin applying plan B in its dealings with Hamas. The new policy includes less accommodation and more pressure. Partly tolerating the tunnels had been an integral aspect of the earlier policy of accommodation. Shutting them down is an important instrument for forcing Hamas to deal seriously with hard realities. Access the full article>>
For more on The Gaza-Egypt Border see our Background Basics.
