February 9, 2010

The elite of the Islamic Republic of Iran perceive Iran as the natural, indispensable, and leading power of the Middle East, even of the Muslim world. … Iran’s sense of pride and importance is influenced by feelings of victimization, insecurity, and inferiority arising from historical exploitation by outside powers. The Iranian view of the United States as the successor to British imperial rule was shaped by the 1953 Anglo-American coup that ousted Prime Minister Mohammad Mossadegh and returned Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi to power. This perception is still an important factor in shaping and driving Iran’s strategic culture and worldview. The Islamic Republic now views the United States as its main adversary and as a threat to the regime’s survival. …

The Iranian system is one in which the informal trumps the formal, power and influence derive as much (if not more) from personality as from position, and domestic factional dynamics drive policy debates and policymaking. … The more powerful, influential, and well-connected the individual or individuals leading an institution are, the greater the weight that institution gains in policymaking and implementation within Iran. …

Khamenei is the most powerful and influential individual in Iran. … But, lacking Khomeini’s iconic status and charisma, Khamenei must balance a multitude of competing interests to ensure that no single faction or group becomes so dominant that it threatens his power and prerogatives. This means operating in what is a relatively dysfunctional political system that tends toward stasis and where the absence of forward movement and innovation in the system is normal. Access the full report>>



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In-Depth Coverage

Original Commentaries

03/09/10
Understanding Ankara  —Morton Abramowitz, former U.S. ambassador to Turkey (1989-91); senior fellow, Century Foundation. Interview with Middle East Bulletin.
03/04/10
A Preview of the Elections  —
03/02/10
Understanding U.S.-Syrian Relations  — Theodore H. Kattouf, former U.S. ambassador to Syria and the United Arab Emirates; president and CEO, AMIDEAST. Interview with Middle East Bulletin.

Setting the Record Straight

Turkey-Israel Ties Stronger than Public Denunciations

“The contours of the new Turkish foreign policy indicate a propensity to distance itself from the West and a quest for enhanced relations with Muslim countries, particularly those located along Turkey’s borders. One clear manifestation of this new policy is the current tensions between Turkey and Israel.”
—Efraim Inbar, director, Begin-Sadat (BESA) Center for Strategic Studies, article, “Israeli-Turkish Tensions and Beyond,” Israel Journal of Foreign Affairs, February 2010versus
  • “Turkey cannot afford to alienate Israel totally either. The ambitions of its foreign policy necessitate that it maintain good and credible relations with all the parties in the region. Neither should it lose its way in intra-Arab squabbles or render its foreign policy hostage to the, at times, delirious reactions of an excitable public. Just as Israel should not allow its current foreign minister’s world view and personality get in the way of safeguarding a critical strategic relation.”
    —Soli Özel, professor of international relations and political science, Istanbul Bilgi University, analysis, “Turkey-Israel Relations: Where to Next?” The German Marshal Fund of the United States, Turkey Series, March 3, 2010
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