Mullahs, Guards and Bonyads

David E. Thaler, Alireza Nader, Shahram Chubin, Jerrold D. Green, Charlotte Lynch, Frederic Wehrey (RAND Corporation)
February 9, 2010

The elite of the Islamic Republic of Iran perceive Iran as the natural, indispensable, and leading power of the Middle East, even of the Muslim world. … Iran’s sense of pride and importance is influenced by feelings of victimization, insecurity, and inferiority arising from historical exploitation by outside powers. The Iranian view of the United States as the successor to British imperial rule was shaped by the 1953 Anglo-American coup that ousted Prime Minister Mohammad Mossadegh and returned Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi to power. This perception is still an important factor in shaping and driving Iran’s strategic culture and worldview. The Islamic Republic now views the United States as its main adversary and as a threat to the regime’s survival. …

The Iranian system is one in which the informal trumps the formal, power and influence derive as much (if not more) from personality as from position, and domestic factional dynamics drive policy debates and policymaking. … The more powerful, influential, and well-connected the individual or individuals leading an institution are, the greater the weight that institution gains in policymaking and implementation within Iran. …

Khamenei is the most powerful and influential individual in Iran. … But, lacking Khomeini’s iconic status and charisma, Khamenei must balance a multitude of competing interests to ensure that no single faction or group becomes so dominant that it threatens his power and prerogatives. This means operating in what is a relatively dysfunctional political system that tends toward stasis and where the absence of forward movement and innovation in the system is normal. Access the full report>>



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In-Depth Coverage

Original Commentaries

08/20/10
Center for American Progress Welcomes Resumption of Direct Talks  —
08/10/10
A View from the Ground  —Darbaz Kosrat Rasul, chair, Rebaz Foundation. Interview with Middle East Bulletin.
08/03/10
U.S.-Turkish Relations  —Ambassador Francis J. Ricciardone, Jr., recently returned deputy ambassador in Afghanistan; former ambassador to Egypt (2005-2008); and deputy chief of mission and charge d'affaires in U.S. embassy in Turkey (1995-1999). Congressional Testimony.

Setting the Record Straight

Eye Still on the Ball

“Adverse developments in Iraq will be (and will look to be) increasingly a function of the Obama Team taking their eye off of the ball and rushing to declare mission accomplished. Yes, in such a scenario the Iraqis should bear most of the blame, but the part that is due to U.S. action or inaction will be Obama's responsibility. And it will matter. Iraq is at the center of a region that every president since Jimmy Carter has identified as vital to our national security. Iraq is next door to, and the playground for mischief from, the most thorny national security challenge the United States faces: a nuclear-weapons-seeking Iranian regime. These inconvenient facts mean that if the Iraqi situation demands more focused and costly U.S. attention, it will likely get it. At that point, what sort of domestic coalition will be available for President Obama's Iraq policy?”
—Peter Feaver, director, Triangle Institute for Security Studies; former director for defense policy and arms control, National Security Council, “Obama’s Iraq Speech: Another Missed Opportunity,” Foreign Policy, August 3, 2010versus
  • “Iraq is a strategically important place in the Middle East, just by its geographic location, by its population, by the influence it's had in the Middle East for a long time. So neighboring countries from around the Middle East have an interest inside of Iraq.

    “But I will tell you that I think Iraqis themselves are nationalistic in nature, and that's why it's important. A strong Iraq will defend itself against interference from outside countries, and I think as we build a strong Iraq and as we continue to build a strong security mechanism and as we continue to help them economically and diplomatically, that will make it less likely of others from the outside being able to interfere.

    “Now, for the vacuum as we see today, again, I remind everyone is that we still have a significant presence here, and we are not going to—we will not allow undue maligned influence on the Iraqi government as they attempt to form their government. What we're trying to do is provide them the space and time for them to do that, and we will continue to do that post 1 September. We'll still have a significant civilian presence, and again, we'll still have 50,000 troops on the ground here to ensure that this government can be formed by the Iraqis. And that all the other nations respect their sovereignty as they go about forming their government.”
    —General Ray Odierno, commander of U.S. forces in Iraq, interview, “This Week” with Christiane Amanpour, August 8, 2010

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