The world is justifiably perplexed by how the popular uprising in Iran will shape that country’s future. The increasingly violent contest between the heterogeneous opposition and a hardened regime is nothing if not opaque, complex and uncertain. From Iran’s closest Arab neighbors, what is most perceptible is their silence. Beyond a principled reluctance to comment on another country’s internal affairs and a muted relief at seeing the Iranian system questioned from within, the silence is also explained by political caution and strategic confusion. …
Erring on the side of prudence, however, should not preclude contingency planning. The Gulf states have mostly been worried that Iran’s growing regional influence and nuclear resolve could lead to one of two dreadful outcomes: a regional war or a grand bargain with the U.S. that would subordinate their interests to an Iranian hegemony in the region. … But the Green movement is now a mainstay of Iranian politics, so it is time to examine how its potential success could affect both Iran and Gulf security. …
To avoid an unsatisfactory outcome, the Arab side needs to devote more thought to how a normal relationship with Iran could and should look like. Access the full article>>
