Iran and the West at a Crossroad

Deepti Choubey, deputy director, Nonproliferation Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (YaleGlobal)
November 10, 2009

Iran’s tactic of insisting that its “nuclear file” is closed took a severe blow when the country was forced to reveal in September the existence of a secret enrichment facility near Qom. Until then, Iran had avoided serious consequences by dividing China and Russia against France, the UK and the U.S.. The revelation led the major powers to craft a unified position for the October 1 talks in Geneva. Since then, they have worked hard to maintain solidarity. …

The major powers constructed a two track approach that prioritizes engagement, but agreement on the desirability or effectiveness of sanctions remains tenuous. Iran, by bucking efforts to assuage concerns, may unify the major powers to adopt harsher legal and economic measures. …

If Iran does not reconsider, the IAEA must take swift action. In light of Iran’s maneuvers, the IAEA Board of Governors at its November meeting should determine that Iran has once again violated its Safeguards Agreement and is in noncompliance with its NPT obligations. Such a move will have serious ramifications for Iran’s future strategy. …

There is still time for Iran to correct its mistake before the IAEA meeting. Perhaps the prospect of another noncompliance determination, tougher UN Security Council action, and the cost to its reputation may alter Iran’s course. The major powers should persuade Iran to reconsider and failing that, they should ensure the international system of institutions and rules impose serious consequences for continued defiance. Access the full article>>



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In-Depth Coverage

Original Commentaries

08/20/10
Center for American Progress Welcomes Resumption of Direct Talks  —
08/10/10
A View from the Ground  —Darbaz Kosrat Rasul, chair, Rebaz Foundation. Interview with Middle East Bulletin.
08/03/10
U.S.-Turkish Relations  —Ambassador Francis J. Ricciardone, Jr., recently returned deputy ambassador in Afghanistan; former ambassador to Egypt (2005-2008); and deputy chief of mission and charge d'affaires in U.S. embassy in Turkey (1995-1999). Congressional Testimony.

Setting the Record Straight

Eye Still on the Ball

“Adverse developments in Iraq will be (and will look to be) increasingly a function of the Obama Team taking their eye off of the ball and rushing to declare mission accomplished. Yes, in such a scenario the Iraqis should bear most of the blame, but the part that is due to U.S. action or inaction will be Obama's responsibility. And it will matter. Iraq is at the center of a region that every president since Jimmy Carter has identified as vital to our national security. Iraq is next door to, and the playground for mischief from, the most thorny national security challenge the United States faces: a nuclear-weapons-seeking Iranian regime. These inconvenient facts mean that if the Iraqi situation demands more focused and costly U.S. attention, it will likely get it. At that point, what sort of domestic coalition will be available for President Obama's Iraq policy?”
—Peter Feaver, director, Triangle Institute for Security Studies; former director for defense policy and arms control, National Security Council, “Obama’s Iraq Speech: Another Missed Opportunity,” Foreign Policy, August 3, 2010versus
  • “Iraq is a strategically important place in the Middle East, just by its geographic location, by its population, by the influence it's had in the Middle East for a long time. So neighboring countries from around the Middle East have an interest inside of Iraq.

    “But I will tell you that I think Iraqis themselves are nationalistic in nature, and that's why it's important. A strong Iraq will defend itself against interference from outside countries, and I think as we build a strong Iraq and as we continue to build a strong security mechanism and as we continue to help them economically and diplomatically, that will make it less likely of others from the outside being able to interfere.

    “Now, for the vacuum as we see today, again, I remind everyone is that we still have a significant presence here, and we are not going to—we will not allow undue maligned influence on the Iraqi government as they attempt to form their government. What we're trying to do is provide them the space and time for them to do that, and we will continue to do that post 1 September. We'll still have a significant civilian presence, and again, we'll still have 50,000 troops on the ground here to ensure that this government can be formed by the Iraqis. And that all the other nations respect their sovereignty as they go about forming their government.”
    —General Ray Odierno, commander of U.S. forces in Iraq, interview, “This Week” with Christiane Amanpour, August 8, 2010

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