U.N. nuclear inspectors return from Qom (AP)
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) announced today that it had received an "initial response" from Iran regarding a draft proposal that would see a significant portion of its low-enriched uranium sent to Russia and France for refinement for the production of medical isotopes. Reports suggested Iran was seeking changes to the agreement. A mission of IAEA inspectors, meanwhile, returned to Vienna after inspecting Iran’s recently revealed second uranium enrichment facility located about 20 miles north of the city of Qom. The results of the inspection are not yet available.
Concurrent to the diplomatic activity, yesterday the House Committee on Foreign Affairs voted out a bill strengthening sanctions against Iran and in particular on refined petroleum products. And earlier this month, the U.S. Senate approved legislation punishing foreign companies that sell fuel to Iran. Earlier this week, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan criticized the West’s efforts to increase pressure on Iran as he embarked on an official visit to Tehran. He also promised to double trade with the Islamic Republic by 2011.
Below are some analysis pieces that look at the recent developments on Iran. For more on U.S. policy options on Iran, check out our recent interview with R. Nicholas Burns, former undersecretary of state for political affairs and lead Iran negotiator under President George W. Bush "A Preview of Negotiations."
Ed Note: For those of you who had trouble accessing the interview with Assaf David, the link should now be working and can be seen here.
Both Iran and West Fear a Trap on Deal
By David E. Sanger (The New York Times)
For days now, Iran’s leadership has been fighting over whether to take that deal, with political opponents of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad all but declaring that he is being duped. Among them is the speaker of Parliament, Ali Larijani, who is Iran’s former nuclear negotiator. On Saturday, he was widely quoted in the Iranian press as saying that the West was trying to deceive Iran and might never return its enriched uranium. He argued that other nations were obliged under the rules of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty to sell Iran new fuel. Mr. Obama tried to head off that possibility this weekend with calls to allies and to President Dmitri A. Medvedev of Russia, urging them to press Iran to give up its stockpile.
The rare public argument under way in Iran about how to deal with the demands suggests that Mr. Obama has already achieved one of the major objectives of his engagement strategy: to force out into the open the splits in the Iranian leadership. As R. Nicholas Burns, the lead State Department strategist on Iran during the Bush administration, told Congress over the summer, President George W. Bush’s refusal to negotiate with Iran for eight years meant that the United States never forced the country’s ruling mullahs to justify their actions to their own people, who have suffered from sanctions and may be less interested in the nuclear program than in better relations with the world. Access the full article>>
For more on U.S. policy interests with Iran, see our background basics.
Nuclear Enrichment Deal with Iran Buys Time
By David Albright, president, Institute for Science and International Security, interview with the Council on Foreign Relations
This agreement aims to reduce Iran’s nuclear weapons capabilities for a relatively short period of time, probably less than a year. But that year is all-important because it allows time for negotiations. …
It’s a sound deal. It’s important to reduce the pressure that’s posed by Iran’s growing nuclear weapons capabilities. It meshes with the United States, and Britain, and France catching Iran building a secret enrichment plant near the city of Qom so Iran has been put on the defensive. The prospects for pressuring Iran to agree to suspension have gone up but still the hard part is ahead. This deal buys some time but it doesn’t solve the fundamental problem of what to do about Iran’s growing nuclear weapons capabilities and that all has to happen within a couple of months before the administration has to make a decision whether to pursue a path of sanctions and isolation and containment of Iran. Access the full article>>
Dealing with Iran: The Power of Legitimacy
By George Perkovich, vice president for studies and director of the Nonproliferation Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Policy Outlook
The first phase of renewed international negotiations with Iran made unexpected progress, although history suggests that Iran could backtrack on its pledges. Iran’s willingness to negotiate after years of bellicose posturing reflects the power of legality. Since late 2002, Iranian officials have emphasized international law in defending their country’s actions and denouncing those of the United States and the UN Security Council. The Iranian leaders’ focus on legitimacy can now be turned against them. The discovery of the Qom uranium enrichment plant breaches Iran’s legal defenses and may intensify the domestic challenges to Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. In a pincher movement, President Obama has dramatically raised the international legitimacy of U.S. policy toward Iran by demonstrating resolve to negotiate a peaceful accommodation with the Islamic Republic. Obama’s approach, and Iran’s clear misconduct, have put the Iranian government on the defensive. Access the full article>>
For more on Iran’s National Security Decision-Making Framework, see our background basics.
