By one calculus of Middle Eastern politics, Israel could say that its month-long offensive against Hamas and heightened economic blockade of Gaza have succeeded. Rockets no longer fly into Israel from the Gaza Strip. And Gaza’s Islamist rulers saw their support base drop below 20 percent as a direct result of a war that exacted a high price: 1,400 dead, 50,000 homes destroyed or damaged, and 1.5 million of Israel’s neighbors more embittered than ever.
The question now: Will Gaza’s battering lay the groundwork for reincorporating the territory and its leaders into a revived peace process? Or will it prolong Gaza’s isolation?
Hamas remains the unchallenged ruler here, two years after ousting Fatah after a violent conflict. But there is evidence that grumbling among its constituents and external pressures are bending what was once an uncompromising stance toward Israel by the Islamic Resistance Movement, as Hamas is formally known. Not only is Hamas refraining from attacking Israel, it is also preventing smaller militant factions from engaging in militant acts. …
Gaza’s short-term fate may well depend on the ongoing reconciliation talks between Hamas and Fatah in Cairo. … Even if a Fatah-Hamas deal is reached, Gazans are pessimistic about any lasting reconciliation. Between the two factions, “there is a tacit agreement, without talking, that we are happy with the situation the way it is today,” says Eyad Sarraj, an independent Gaza politician and human rights activist. If that is the case, then the past two years could be only the beginning of isolation for Gazans. A "total failure" of Palestinian leadership has led Gazans to the point where they "are now the last ones to decide on [their] destiny," Dr. Sarraj says. Access the full article>>
