With two congressional delegations having visited Damascus since the U.S. presidential election, Barack Obama appears to be keeping his promise to engage with Syria as part of his regional diplomacy strategy. … Mr. Obama probably hopes that improved relations with Syria would encourage the country to cease its support for Hezbollah and Hamas, increase its border security with Iraq and drive a wedge between Damascus and Tehran. However, all this has been tried before through diplomatic channels with little effect.
In particular, Syria’s ties with Iran are more than ideological. Tehran provides much needed financial aid and trade relations for a country under stifling economic embargoes. Without some financial incentives in the form of aid money or a reduction in trade barriers, there is little to coax Syria in from the cold. However, with oil prices as low as they are, Damascus is undergoing painful budget cuts. The country desperately needs to join the global trade in goods and services and to boost its promising tourism industry.
There are additional incentives for Damascus to strike a deal, now more than ever. Its bargaining chips are dwindling. With security in Iraq rapidly improving, Syria cannot offer to stem the flow of insurgents over its porous border with Iraq. … Additionally, the longer that Syria supports ultra-hardline groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah, the more it risks alienating both itself and its supporters. This would ultimately reduce its regional clout, which is the entire point of supporting these groups in the first place. …
Ultimately, Mr. Assad must fear that the United States will come to an accommodation with Iran that would leave Syria in the diplomatic cold without support from Tehran. This would require it to make even more painful concessions to reintegrate itself into the international community. And this is Mr. Obama’s ultimate leverage. Syria can do much to aid the cause of Middle East peace. It can also do much to halt those efforts. But its ability to do so is steadily decreasing. Access the full article>>
