Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Iran’s president, predicted in March that Barack Obama would never reach America’s highest office. … In July Mr. Ahmadinejad ventured another prediction. The price of oil, he declared, would never fall below $100 a barrel. …
[T]he failure of both of Mr. Ahmadinejad’s predictions now presents a double dilemma. Even before the plunge in oil prices … Iranian economists had raised alarms about spendthrift policies that helped push inflation close to 30%. … Given the international sanctions clamped on Iran for its nuclear transgressions, it is not clear where the government can turn for financing. … Iranian economists have taken to bombarding the president with letters excoriating his policies. …
On top of this, Mr. Ahmadinejad faces mounting political trouble. His hardline interior minister, a close associate, was sacked by Iran’s parliament in October after it was revealed that his claimed degree from Oxford University was a fake. Religious conservatives have since attacked another of his loyalists … for violating the sanctity of the Koran by hosting a reception where female entertainers paraded copies of the holy book. Mr. Ahmadinejad still appears to have the backing of Iran’s all-powerful supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Yet some analysts say the ayatollah may come to see the president as a liability in the run-up to next summer’s presidential elections.
A vital test will be how Mr. Ahmadinejad deals with the incoming U.S. administration. … Mr. Ahmadinejad took the unprecedented step of sending a congratulatory letter to the U.S. president-elect. But his words were soon undercut by warnings from other officials that the United States would simply change negotiating tactics from “hard” to “soft,” and exploit Mr. Obama’s immense popularity to rally more forces against the Islamic republic. Iran’s recent test of a new missile, with an advanced semi-solid-fuel design and a declared range of 2,000km (1,250 miles), points to continuing defiance—but maybe also to a degree of growing apprehension. Access the full article>>
