November 18, 2008

On November 16, the 40-member Iraqi cabinet approved a proposed security agreement with the United States. The pact, passed by a 27-1 margin, sets the legal framework for the status of more than 150,000 U.S. troops stationed in roughly 400 bases throughout the country. The proposed agreement is meant to take the place of the current UN mandate permitting multinational forces in Iraq, which expires at the end of the year. The pact is still pending approval of the Iraqi parliament, which remains divided over the agreement. The presidency council, consisting of President Jalal Talabani and his two deputies, must also approve the proposed deal.

Security Agreement Details
The agreement reportedly contains 31 articles including certain key provisions:
Establishes June 30, 2009 as the date for the withdrawal of U.S. forces from all cities and towns; sets December 31, 2011 as the date for withdrawal of all U.S. troops from Iraq
Prevents the United States from using Iraq as a base for attacks on neighboring countries
Allows for joint Iraqi-U.S. panels to try U.S. soldiers and defense contractors if they commit serious crimes while off duty and off base
• Allows the Iraqi government to try nearly 16,400 detainees currently being held by the United States in Iraqi courts
Requires U.S. forces to seek permission from the Iraqi government to search homes
Provides Iraqis with the right to examine incoming shipments, including those with weapons, destined for U.S. recipients

Progression of Negotiations
In November 2007, the United States and Iraq agreed to a Declaration of Principles that set general principles for the countries’ political, cultural, economic and security relations. This arrangement took the form of a security agreement and a more general strategic framework agreement covering issues not included in the proposed security agreement. The Iraqi government stated it would no longer request an extension of the UN mandate legalizing the presence of multinational troops in Iraq past December 2008. The sides had expected to reach an agreement by July, but negotiations slowed due to concerns regarding details of the pact. U.S. and Iraqi negotiators reportedly reached an understanding after the United States agreed to certain Iraqi amendments laid out in late October.

Key U.S. policy shifts in response to Iraqi demands, including a promise to set a concrete date for troop withdrawals and providing Iraq with a degree of authority in criminal cases involving U.S. forces, led Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki to support the agreement, paving the way for its passage through the cabinet. In addition, various Iraqi Shiite politicians said Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, the most influential Iraqi Shiite cleric, reportedly offered support for the agreement under certain conditions, and this influenced the cabinet’s decision.

Next Steps
The Council of Representatives (COR), Iraq’s parliament, must still approve legislation that includes both the security agreement and the strategic framework agreement. Although Article 58 of the Iraqi Constitution says that international treaties and agreements require ratification by a two-thirds majority of the COR, it is still unclear whether the pact will need to be passed by a simple or two-thirds majority. The accord faced criticism from Sadrists, led by the Shia cleric Moktada al-Sadr, and some Sunni politicians during its first reading in the COR on November 17. Opponents sought to gather support to demand Maliki and other cabinet officials answer questions about the accord in parliament. Sadrists contended the ratification process was unconstitutional and threatened to bring the matter before the court, while also planning to submit a bill requiring a two-thirds majority for parliamentary approval.

If it passes the COR, the security agreement will need to be ratified by Iraq’s presidency council, consisting of President Talabani, a Kurd, and the two vice presidents, Tariq al-Hashimi, a Sunni, and Adil Abdul Mahdi, a Shiite. The parliament’s deputy speaker indicated he expected the COR to vote on the security agreement by November 24, a day before a scheduled 15-day recess.

U.S. Concerns
Congress has expressed concerns that the Bush administration has not consulted with it throughout the negotiations on the proposed security pact. A bipartisan group of U.S. senators introduced a bill in August, since referred to the Foreign Relations Committee, prohibiting the Bush administration from entering into binding security deals without receiving prior approval from Congress. Several members of Congress, including Congressman Ike Skelton, chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, have expressed concern about possible provisions that would allow the prosecution of U.S. forces in Iraqi courts.



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Original Commentaries

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A View from the Ground  —Darbaz Kosrat Rasul, chair, Rebaz Foundation. Interview with Middle East Bulletin.
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Setting the Record Straight

Eye Still on the Ball

“Adverse developments in Iraq will be (and will look to be) increasingly a function of the Obama Team taking their eye off of the ball and rushing to declare mission accomplished. Yes, in such a scenario the Iraqis should bear most of the blame, but the part that is due to U.S. action or inaction will be Obama's responsibility. And it will matter. Iraq is at the center of a region that every president since Jimmy Carter has identified as vital to our national security. Iraq is next door to, and the playground for mischief from, the most thorny national security challenge the United States faces: a nuclear-weapons-seeking Iranian regime. These inconvenient facts mean that if the Iraqi situation demands more focused and costly U.S. attention, it will likely get it. At that point, what sort of domestic coalition will be available for President Obama's Iraq policy?”
—Peter Feaver, director, Triangle Institute for Security Studies; former director for defense policy and arms control, National Security Council, “Obama’s Iraq Speech: Another Missed Opportunity,” Foreign Policy, August 3, 2010versus
  • “Iraq is a strategically important place in the Middle East, just by its geographic location, by its population, by the influence it's had in the Middle East for a long time. So neighboring countries from around the Middle East have an interest inside of Iraq.

    “But I will tell you that I think Iraqis themselves are nationalistic in nature, and that's why it's important. A strong Iraq will defend itself against interference from outside countries, and I think as we build a strong Iraq and as we continue to build a strong security mechanism and as we continue to help them economically and diplomatically, that will make it less likely of others from the outside being able to interfere.

    “Now, for the vacuum as we see today, again, I remind everyone is that we still have a significant presence here, and we are not going to—we will not allow undue maligned influence on the Iraqi government as they attempt to form their government. What we're trying to do is provide them the space and time for them to do that, and we will continue to do that post 1 September. We'll still have a significant civilian presence, and again, we'll still have 50,000 troops on the ground here to ensure that this government can be formed by the Iraqis. And that all the other nations respect their sovereignty as they go about forming their government.”
    —General Ray Odierno, commander of U.S. forces in Iraq, interview, “This Week” with Christiane Amanpour, August 8, 2010
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