July 31, 2008

Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and Syrian President Bashar Assad (AP)

Ehud Olmert announced he will resign as prime minister following elections to choose a new chair of the Kadima Party on September 17, with a possible runoff between the top two candidates on September 24. Israeli President Shimon Peres, will then task a member of the Knesset (MK) (most likely the newly chosen head of Kadima) with forming a government. The MK has 28 days to do so, with a possible 14-day extension. If a government is created, the MK will assume the balance of Olmert’s term. If the MK is unsuccessful, Peres will choose another MK who will have 28 days to form a government. If that too ends in failure, the Knesset will be deemed to have opted to dissolve, leading to new general elections within 90 days. Until a new government is formed, Olmert will remain as prime minister.

Likely Kadima Primary Candidates
Avi Dichter
Dichter is the minister of public security and former director of the Shin Bet, Israel’s internal intelligence service. He was elected to the Knesset in March 2006 and was appointed minister two months later. While serving as Shin Bet director in 2001, Dichter advocated for the construction of the separation barrier between Israel and the West Bank.

Tzipi Livni
Livni, the vice prime minister and minister of foreign affairs, was elected to the Knesset in 1999. She was a member of the Likud Party before helping to form Kadima in 2005. Livni serves as Israel’s lead negotiator in renewed peace talks with the Palestinians.

Shaul Mofaz
Mofaz is the current transportation minister and deputy prime minister. A former defense minister and army chief of staff, Mofaz was elected to the Knesset in March 2006. In June 2008, Mofaz spoke about Israel’s willingness to bomb Iran, which traders saw as contributing to the largest single-day increase ever in oil prices.

Meir Sheetrit
Sheetrit, the minister of interior, was mayor of Yavneh from 1974-1987 and has served in various posts in the Cabinet including minister of justice, minister of finance and minister of transportation. In 2006, Sheetrit left the Likud party and joined Kadima.

Likely Prime Ministerial Candidates Outside Kadima
Ehud Barak (Labor)
Barak, prime minister from May 1999 to March 2001, has been a deputy prime minister and the minister of defense since June 2007. As prime minister, Barak took part in the 2000 Camp David summit with Palestinian Authority President Yasser Arafat and U.S. President Bill Clinton. He also negotiated unsuccessfully with Syria.

Benjamin Netanyahu (Likud)
Netanyahu served as prime minister from 1996 to 1999, minister of foreign affairs from November 2002 until February 2003 and finance minister from February 2003 to August 2005. As prime minister, Netanyahu negotiated the Wye River Memorandum with Arafat and Clinton. Implementation of that agreement, however, was limited. As finance minister, Netanyahu enacted a series of controversial economic reforms.

For more information, see Israel’s Political System



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In-Depth Coverage

Original Commentaries

03/11/10
First Reactions  —
03/09/10
Understanding Ankara  —Morton Abramowitz, former U.S. ambassador to Turkey (1989-91); senior fellow, Century Foundation. Interview with Middle East Bulletin.
03/04/10
A Preview of the Elections  —

Setting the Record Straight

Turkey-Israel Ties Stronger than Public Denunciations

“The contours of the new Turkish foreign policy indicate a propensity to distance itself from the West and a quest for enhanced relations with Muslim countries, particularly those located along Turkey’s borders. One clear manifestation of this new policy is the current tensions between Turkey and Israel.”
—Efraim Inbar, director, Begin-Sadat (BESA) Center for Strategic Studies, article, “Israeli-Turkish Tensions and Beyond,” Israel Journal of Foreign Affairs, February 2010versus
  • “Turkey cannot afford to alienate Israel totally either. The ambitions of its foreign policy necessitate that it maintain good and credible relations with all the parties in the region. Neither should it lose its way in intra-Arab squabbles or render its foreign policy hostage to the, at times, delirious reactions of an excitable public. Just as Israel should not allow its current foreign minister’s world view and personality get in the way of safeguarding a critical strategic relation.”
    —Soli Özel, professor of international relations and political science, Istanbul Bilgi University, analysis, “Turkey-Israel Relations: Where to Next?” The German Marshal Fund of the United States, Turkey Series, March 3, 2010
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