Stay Informed

Sign up to receive the Middle East Bulletin!

Support Middle East Progress

In-Depth Coverage

Original Commentaries

07/08/08
Planning the Transition  —Ghaith al-Omari, director of advocacy, American Task Force on Palestine; former foreign policy adviser to Palestinian President Abbas. Original Commentary for Middle East Bulletin.
07/07/08
Moving Forward in Lebanon After Doha: Bridging Deep Divides  —Mona Yacoubian, director of the Lebanon Working Group, U.S. Institute of Peace. Original Commentary for Middle East Bulletin.
06/27/08
Dealing with the Challenge of Prisoners  —Brigadier General (Ret.) Ilan Paz, former head of the Israeli Civil Administration in the West Bank (2002-2005). Interview with Middle East Bulletin.

Setting the Record Straight

Israeli-Syrian Peace Could Alter Regional Dynamic

“I think [the Israelis] are making a mistake trying to negotiate with Syria now, because I don’t think Syria has any independent ability to make decisions. Over the past several years, Syria has become functionally a satellite of Iran, so that if the Israelis really wanted to negotiate with somebody, they ought to be in Tehran, not in Damascus. … I think it will be seen as a mistake in their domestic politics, and it certainly wouldn’t fit my cost-benefit analysis of a fruitful place to have discussions.”
—John Bolton, senior fellow, American Enterprise Institute & former U.S. ambassador to the UN, interview with NationalJournal.com, May 23, 2008 versus
  • "An Israeli-Syrian peace would be based on interests … The first thing the Syrians want is the Golan [Heights], but they want other things too. … Syria wants to be defined differently than Iran and come back to the center of the international system. In terms of Israeli interests, I think the first thing would be no all-out warfare. … In addition, an agreement with Syria would include the larger Arab world and not the Assad government alone. Such an agreement would also undermine Hezbollah, Hamas and extreme Islamist movements. … The United States is needed for addressing the Syrian interests, beyond the Golan, including removal of Syria from the ‘axis of evil’ and economic incentives.”
    —Major General (Ret.) Danny Rothschild, former IDF coordinator of activities in the Palestinian territories (1991-95) & president, Israeli Council for Peace and Security, event ,"Peace with Syria," July 14, 2008 (translated by Middle East Bulletin)

    • Middle East Analysis

    The Moment Before the Respite

    Haaretz, Editorial
    May 2, 2008

    Israeli critics of the proposed calm are correct in pointing out the defects in the cease-fire’s outline. Acceptance of the continued strengthening of Hamas in Gaza is liable to reinforce the extremist elements in Palestinian society. Hamas can also claim to have achieved for the Palestinians what Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) failed to achieve, and use the cease-fire as a lever for imposing a veto on any progress in the diplomatic process. However, the main fear is that the period of calm will be exploited for the acquisition of weapons and the manufacture of explosives that will serve the organization if it decides to violate the cease-fire.

    All these are important factors that must be weighed, but they are countered by other considerations, which should tip the overall balance to the positive side. The Palestinian factions are supposed to accept the separation between Gaza and the West Bank in terms of Israeli security forces activity. The Israel Defense Forces can continue to operate in the West Bank for the next six months against the terror organizations, without fearing the collapse of the cease-fire in Gaza. … In other words, the state of warfare between the IDF and the terror organizations in the West Bank will continue as was. …

    The cease-fire also requires the opening of the Rafah crossing; without it Gaza will continue to be in a state of agitation and to threaten both Egypt and Israeli communities. That is also the reason why Egypt is acting with the utmost determination to establish the cease-fire. It seems that this time Israel also understands the importance of opening the crossings, particularly after becoming aware that closing them has prevented neither the arming of Hamas nor its attacks. …

    Israel can contribute a great deal to prolonging the cease-fire by gradually removing the sanctions from Gaza, and particularly by promoting diplomatic steps vis-a-vis the Palestinian Authority. Instead of rejecting the calm and helping the gloomy forecast to come true, it would be better to give a chance to the hesitant step to achieve a cease-fire. Access the full article>>