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Middle East Analysis

Egypt’s Local Elections Farce: Causes and Consequences

By Amr Hamzawy, senior associate, and Mohammed Herzallah, junior fellow, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Policy Outlook

posted on 05/07/08

Egypt is trapped in an unenviable position, characterized by growing social unrest and political polarization. Choices made by the Egyptian regime will most likely determine whether the current social convulsions will be followed by more instability or, if matters are handled prudently, sustainable recovery. In all likelihood the option of moderating the perilous effects of economic strain by orchestrating a new wave of political reforms is one that the regime will hesitate to embrace at this stage. The concern that such openings might make worse the odds of a trouble-free presidential succession seems to surpass any other considerations. The result of this conservative outlook has been a regrettable return to old authoritarian habits on the part of the regime. …

Regrettably, the panic that presently characterizes the Egyptian regime’s handling of the country’s troubles is likely to persist until the presidential succession issue is finally settled. To be sure, the task of persuading the regime to support political reforms when it is trapped in this frame of mind is immeasurably difficult … The capacity of organized opposition forces to reach out to the public and take part in resolving collective grievances in a peaceful, constructive manner continues to contract. Liberal and leftist forces continue to hemorrhage credibility and cohesion. In addition, the regime’s anti-Muslim Brotherhood policies are causing the group to reconsider its consistent commitment to the political participation option. This state of strategic imbalance could have critical repercussions in terms of the Brotherhood’s ability to sustain a sense of disciplined moderation within its ranks. Such an outcome would have severe long-term repercussions for the country as a whole.

The current resurgence of protest activism constitutes the one promising development in Egyptian political life. But progress on the street needs to be complemented by real political progress in the performance of organized opposition forces in the political process. Notwithstanding the fact that this progress is largely predicated on the regime’s willingness to welcome the opposition’s input, it is also dependent on the quality of this opposition. Only through active, disciplined, credible, and committed participation in the political process can organized political forces in Egypt effectively advance the reform agenda and push for sensible and comprehensive policies that can address the socio-economic exigencies at hand. Access the full article>>