April 23, 2008

Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and Syrian President Bashar Assad (AP)

Brief History
Shortly after the end of major combat operations the UN established a robust mission under the leadership of veteran diplomat Sergio de Mello. A suicide bombing in August 2003 killed 22, including de Mello, and the UN significantly reduced its presence by that October, withdrawing nearly all personnel. A limited staff of 35 returned in April 2004. Most UN personnel, however, were then based in Amman, limiting situational awareness.

Current Scope of UN Role
UN Security Council resolution 1770, approved August 10, 2007, authorizes the UN to work to seek national reconciliation, help settle border disputes, promote internal dialogue and lay the groundwork for a national census. The UN is led by experienced post-conflict diplomat Staffan de Mistura, with headquarters in Baghdad, and regional offices in Erbil and Basra. It is composed of 16 agencies and programs, and has nearly 300 international staff and security forces and employs about 550 “highly qualified” Iraqis. UN offices are supported by a Fiji Guard Unit, though security remains a concern, with UN officials claiming that a more visible UN role increases the potential for danger.

Key UN Responsibilities in Iraq
Refugees
The UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) helps to support the estimated 1.8 million internally displaced persons (IDP) in Iraq and the 2 million Iraqi refugees living throughout the Middle East. The UNHCR has registered more than 220,000 Iraqis in other states, provided health assistance to some 210,000 cases, aided in the enrollment of 100,000 refugee children in school and, in 2007, helped resettle 4,500 Iraqis. In January 2008, UNHCR launched a consolidated appeal for $261 million to provide for Iraqi refugees throughout the Middle East and IDPs in Iraq. The funds will also aid some 41,000 non-Iraqi IDPs, including 13,000 Palestinian refugees.

UNHCR and the International Organization for Migration have also been tasked with working with the Iraqi government to develop and execute plans to resettle returning refugees. They launched a rapid response plan on December 4, 2007 that aims to assist 5,000 returning families. The UN stressed, however, that it cannot encourage the return of refugees due to unstable security concerns. While there are no official statistics for the number of returning Iraqi refugees, the Iraqi government estimates that 30,000 families returned to Iraq in late 2007 and the UNHCR estimates as many as 15,000 will return in 2008.

Kirkuk Referendum
In December 2007, the UN convinced the Kurds to delay implementation of Article 140 of the Iraqi constitution for an additional six months. This move provides the election commission more time to prepare for a referendum on the status of Kirkuk and to avoid possible resulting violence. Whether the oil-rich governorate of Kirkuk should be a part of the Kurdish semiautonomous region has been a volatile issue since the beginning of the war. The Kurds want to bring this traditionally Kurdish governorate into its semiautonomous region, but Arab Shiites settled in the city by Saddam Hussein and a large Turkmen minority want to remain outside of the region.
Article 140 states that the Iraqi government must complete a normalization process of Kirkuk, hold a census to determine the population ethnicity breakdown of the governorate and hold a referendum on the regional status of Kirkuk by December 31, 2007. The normalization process would allow previously displaced Kurds to return to Kirkuk and would resettle Arab Shiites to their towns of origin, in the south, with compensation. The UN will release proposals in May for other contested areas in Iraq that could provide a model for the future of Kirkuk.

International Compact for Iraq
On May 3, 2007, the UN launched the International Compact for Iraq (ICI); a five-year road map to help Iraq achieve its long-term economic, political and security goals. The ICI sets a "National Vision for Iraq" that aims for the economic and political integration of Iraq with its neighbors. The plan is unlikely to achieve its goals, however, because it conditions the provision of foreign assistance on political actions by the Iraqi government. The plan additionally poses a risk in that simply convening regional actors without a defined plan might complicate Iraqi negotiations, because regional actors may seek to advance their own national interests. A follow-up meeting for the ICI is planned for May 29 in Sweden, with the goal of increasing international support for stability and reconstruction in Iraq.

Elections
The Iraqi Parliament has recently sought greater UN involvement due to concerns of politicization. Under UN Resolution 1770, the UN is helping to prepare for provincial elections, to be held before October 1, 2008. Its efforts have focused on filling provincial election commissions with qualified, independent people to administer the elections. Eight provinces representing 80 percent of Iraq’s population do not have provincial election commissions. The UN solicited over 800 applications and is in the process of recommending 15 for each province, of which the Iraqi Parliament will select five. The Iraqi Independent High Electoral Commission will then select one of the five to be the provincial chairman. Throughout the process the UN will retain the ability to appoint commissioners on a temporary basis if there is political gridlock. The UN is also providing guidance for Parliament as it drafts a new election law.



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In-Depth Coverage

Original Commentaries

08/20/10
Center for American Progress Welcomes Resumption of Direct Talks  —
08/10/10
A View from the Ground  —Darbaz Kosrat Rasul, chair, Rebaz Foundation. Interview with Middle East Bulletin.
08/03/10
U.S.-Turkish Relations  —Ambassador Francis J. Ricciardone, Jr., recently returned deputy ambassador in Afghanistan; former ambassador to Egypt (2005-2008); and deputy chief of mission and charge d'affaires in U.S. embassy in Turkey (1995-1999). Congressional Testimony.

Setting the Record Straight

Eye Still on the Ball

“Adverse developments in Iraq will be (and will look to be) increasingly a function of the Obama Team taking their eye off of the ball and rushing to declare mission accomplished. Yes, in such a scenario the Iraqis should bear most of the blame, but the part that is due to U.S. action or inaction will be Obama's responsibility. And it will matter. Iraq is at the center of a region that every president since Jimmy Carter has identified as vital to our national security. Iraq is next door to, and the playground for mischief from, the most thorny national security challenge the United States faces: a nuclear-weapons-seeking Iranian regime. These inconvenient facts mean that if the Iraqi situation demands more focused and costly U.S. attention, it will likely get it. At that point, what sort of domestic coalition will be available for President Obama's Iraq policy?”
—Peter Feaver, director, Triangle Institute for Security Studies; former director for defense policy and arms control, National Security Council, “Obama’s Iraq Speech: Another Missed Opportunity,” Foreign Policy, August 3, 2010versus
  • “Iraq is a strategically important place in the Middle East, just by its geographic location, by its population, by the influence it's had in the Middle East for a long time. So neighboring countries from around the Middle East have an interest inside of Iraq.

    “But I will tell you that I think Iraqis themselves are nationalistic in nature, and that's why it's important. A strong Iraq will defend itself against interference from outside countries, and I think as we build a strong Iraq and as we continue to build a strong security mechanism and as we continue to help them economically and diplomatically, that will make it less likely of others from the outside being able to interfere.

    “Now, for the vacuum as we see today, again, I remind everyone is that we still have a significant presence here, and we are not going to—we will not allow undue maligned influence on the Iraqi government as they attempt to form their government. What we're trying to do is provide them the space and time for them to do that, and we will continue to do that post 1 September. We'll still have a significant civilian presence, and again, we'll still have 50,000 troops on the ground here to ensure that this government can be formed by the Iraqis. And that all the other nations respect their sovereignty as they go about forming their government.”
    —General Ray Odierno, commander of U.S. forces in Iraq, interview, “This Week” with Christiane Amanpour, August 8, 2010
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