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In-Depth Coverage

Original Commentaries

07/08/08
Planning the Transition  —Ghaith al-Omari, director of advocacy, American Task Force on Palestine; former foreign policy adviser to Palestinian President Abbas. Original Commentary for Middle East Bulletin.
07/07/08
Moving Forward in Lebanon After Doha: Bridging Deep Divides  —Mona Yacoubian, director of the Lebanon Working Group, U.S. Institute of Peace. Original Commentary for Middle East Bulletin.
06/27/08
Dealing with the Challenge of Prisoners  —Brigadier General (Ret.) Ilan Paz, former head of the Israeli Civil Administration in the West Bank (2002-2005). Interview with Middle East Bulletin.

Setting the Record Straight

Israeli-Syrian Peace Could Alter Regional Dynamic

“I think [the Israelis] are making a mistake trying to negotiate with Syria now, because I don’t think Syria has any independent ability to make decisions. Over the past several years, Syria has become functionally a satellite of Iran, so that if the Israelis really wanted to negotiate with somebody, they ought to be in Tehran, not in Damascus. … I think it will be seen as a mistake in their domestic politics, and it certainly wouldn’t fit my cost-benefit analysis of a fruitful place to have discussions.”
—John Bolton, senior fellow, American Enterprise Institute & former U.S. ambassador to the UN, interview with NationalJournal.com, May 23, 2008 versus
  • "An Israeli-Syrian peace would be based on interests … The first thing the Syrians want is the Golan [Heights], but they want other things too. … Syria wants to be defined differently than Iran and come back to the center of the international system. In terms of Israeli interests, I think the first thing would be no all-out warfare. … In addition, an agreement with Syria would include the larger Arab world and not the Assad government alone. Such an agreement would also undermine Hezbollah, Hamas and extreme Islamist movements. … The United States is needed for addressing the Syrian interests, beyond the Golan, including removal of Syria from the ‘axis of evil’ and economic incentives.”
    —Major General (Ret.) Danny Rothschild, former IDF coordinator of activities in the Palestinian territories (1991-95) & president, Israeli Council for Peace and Security, event ,"Peace with Syria," July 14, 2008 (translated by Middle East Bulletin)
  • Middle East Analysis

    March 31, 2008

    The 20th Arab League summit was held in Damascus, Syria from March 29-30. Arab League summits are held annually. Head of state representation is usually expected. While personal disputes among leaders often lead to no-shows at the summit, the notable absences at this year’s summit are more critical than usual—ten of the Arab League’s 22 heads of state did not attend. Below is a list of each country’s level of representation and an analysis of the issues concerning certain states’ decisions.

    Head of State Representation
    Algeria, Comoros, Kuwait, Libya, Mauritania, Palestinian Authority, Qatar, Sudan, Tunisia and United Arab Emirates.

    Lower Level Representation
    Bahrain (Deputy Prime Minister): King Hamad bin Isa al-Khalifah was visiting the United States. Bahrain is a close ally of Saudi Arabia, which has criticized Syria for its interference in Lebanon’s ongoing political crisis, and likely is not attending due to this relationship.

    Egypt (State Minister for Legal and Parliamentary Affairs): Egypt has been clear about its opposition to Syria’s involvement in Lebanon, with Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit stating, “I’m afraid that the Lebanese issue will reflect negatively on this summit."

    Iraq (Vice President): President Nuri al-Maliki was busy overseeing military operations in southern Iraq.

    Jordan (Permanent Arab League Representative): King Abdullah II’s decision not to attend the summit the day before it began was unexplained, but is seen as a critique of Syria’s involvement in Lebanon, continued support of Hamas and Islamic Jihad, and close alliance with Iran.

    Morocco (Foreign Minister): Moroccan heads of state usually do not attend Arab League summits, but there are reports that King Mohammad VI’s absence is politically motivated as well.

    Oman (Deputy Prime Minister): Omani heads of state usually do not attend Arab League summits, but Oman has remained involved in regional diplomacy. In early March, the Omani foreign minister met with his counterparts from Iran, Syria and Qatar. Diplomats reported that the meeting was most likely a follow up to earlier discussions concerning Lebanon between Iran and Saudi Arabia.

    Saudi Arabia (Permanent Arab League Representative): Relations between Saudi Arabia and Syria have deteriorated due to Syria’s actions in Lebanon and Iraq and its partnership with Iran. King Abdullah’s decision not to attend is the most recent manifestation of this tension and likely was due to the continued gridlock in Lebanon caused partially by the pro-Syrian opposition.

    Yemen (Vice President): The government of Yemen said that President Ali Abdullah Saleh could not attend due to “special circumstances.” His decision not to attend was a surprise after Yemen’s recent attempts to broker an agreement between Fatah and Hamas.

    No Representation
    Lebanon: Syria invited Lebanese Prime Minister Fuad Siniora, however the invitation was turned down. As a statement by the government explained, "Based on the injustice that Syria has subjected Lebanon to (and) in light of the vacuum in the presidency … the council of ministers decides that Lebanon will not take part in the Arab summit in Damascus that is scheduled for March 29-30."

    United Nations: The United Nations Secretary-General is normally invited as a guest of honor, but did not attend this year.

    Unknown Representation
    Djibouti

    Somalia: Somali President Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed remained in Mogadishu and met with Ethiopian Foreign Minister Seyoum Mesfin. Clashes between government forces and Islamist rebels over the weekend killed 17 in Mogadishu, reinforcing concerns about the stability of the Somali government.

    Notable Observer
    Iran: Syria invited Iran’s Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki to the summit as an observer. Iran’s invitation is indicative of the deepening ties between Syria and Iran as international pressure increases on both countries.