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Middle East Analysis

Shaping Syria’s Calculations

By Mohamed Abdel Salam, Head of the Regional Security Program, Al-Ahram Center for Political & Strategic Studies in Cairo (Bitterlemons-international.org)

posted on 03/24/08

Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak & Syrian President Bashar Assad (AP)

The Syrian capital has dumped all its problems on the summit. The summit has led to an opening of the files of Syria's policies in the region, yet without registering progress in resolving the problems generated by these policies.

Syria has turned away from its traditional alliance with Egypt and Saudi Arabia to become party to a coalition with Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas. The two alliances are waging a genuine cold war in the Middle East arena. This war has turned Lebanon into a time bomb, worsened the situation in the Gaza Strip, strained relations between Damascus and Riyadh and generated an unprecedented stalemate in relations between Damascus and Cairo. …

Egypt, aware of the dangers of Syria’s behavior, has traditionally sought to prevent Syria from moving in directions that Damascus might regret. It appears … that Egypt has tried to exploit the Damascus summit as a real opportunity to maneuver Syria back into the so-called "Arab ranks." … Yet Damascus seems to be thinking in an entirely different direction. It is not ready at all to be flexible regarding the problems it faces even if this means the summit’s failure. Access the full article>>