Lebanon Political Crisis Timeline Since November 2007

February 4, 2008

Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and Syrian President Bashar Assad (AP)

For background on Lebanon’s political crisis before November 2007, click here.

November 2007

Presidential elections are delayed from November 12, as Lebanon’s rival coalitions, the anti-Syrian March 14 coalition and the pro-Syrian opposition, are unable to agree upon a suitable Maronite Christian candidate. Despite mediation from UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon as well as Arab League Secretary General Amr Moussa and the French and Italian foreign ministers the two sides cannot agree on a candidate before President Emile Lahoud steps down after completing his term on November 23. On November 29 the rival coalitions agree on General Michel Suleiman, the Army’s chief of staff, as a presidential candidate. Since Gen. Suleiman is a member of the armed forces, Lebanon’s constitution must be amended to remove the two-year waiting period that restricts former senior civil servants from running for office. The Parliament is scheduled to meet on December 7 to vote on Gen. Suleiman.

December 2007

Rival coalitions, while ostensibly united on Gen. Suleiman, are unable to elect him because the sides cannot agree on the process for amending the constitution nor on the cabinet composition. Decisions on major national issues require two-thirds support of the 30-member cabinet. The Arab League proposed that the March 14 coalition be assigned 14 members, the opposition ten, and Gen. Suleiman choose the remaining. The opposition has called for 11 members, allowing it to block cabinet decisions. The election is postponed multiple times throughout the month, despite outside intervention from French and Arab League diplomats. The situation worsens when General Francois Hajj, appointed to succeed Gen. Suleiman as head of the Army, is assassinated on December 12.

January 2008

Elections are postponed throughout the month, but Arab League Secretary General Amr Moussa continues to mediate between the two sides. He presents a three-point Arab initiative that calls for Gen. Suleiman to be elected president, the formation of a national unity government and the creation of a new electoral law. The March 14 coalition has accepted the proposal but the opposition now rejects Gen. Suleiman as a candidate, citing lack of faith that he would provide them with a veto as needed. Gen. Suleiman has called Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who is reported to have shifted Syria’s support toward former foreign minister Faris Bouweiz. The opposition also begins to challenge Moussa and the Arab League’s independence from Egypt and the United States. In late January, Arab League foreign ministers meet in Cairo and decide to send Moussa back to Lebanon. His next meeting will focus on dividing cabinet seats between the two coalitions. The next parliamentary session to elect the president is scheduled for February 11.



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In-Depth Coverage

Original Commentaries

08/20/10
Center for American Progress Welcomes Resumption of Direct Talks  —
08/10/10
A View from the Ground  —Darbaz Kosrat Rasul, chair, Rebaz Foundation. Interview with Middle East Bulletin.
08/03/10
U.S.-Turkish Relations  —Ambassador Francis J. Ricciardone, Jr., recently returned deputy ambassador in Afghanistan; former ambassador to Egypt (2005-2008); and deputy chief of mission and charge d'affaires in U.S. embassy in Turkey (1995-1999). Congressional Testimony.

Setting the Record Straight

Eye Still on the Ball

“Adverse developments in Iraq will be (and will look to be) increasingly a function of the Obama Team taking their eye off of the ball and rushing to declare mission accomplished. Yes, in such a scenario the Iraqis should bear most of the blame, but the part that is due to U.S. action or inaction will be Obama's responsibility. And it will matter. Iraq is at the center of a region that every president since Jimmy Carter has identified as vital to our national security. Iraq is next door to, and the playground for mischief from, the most thorny national security challenge the United States faces: a nuclear-weapons-seeking Iranian regime. These inconvenient facts mean that if the Iraqi situation demands more focused and costly U.S. attention, it will likely get it. At that point, what sort of domestic coalition will be available for President Obama's Iraq policy?”
—Peter Feaver, director, Triangle Institute for Security Studies; former director for defense policy and arms control, National Security Council, “Obama’s Iraq Speech: Another Missed Opportunity,” Foreign Policy, August 3, 2010versus
  • “Iraq is a strategically important place in the Middle East, just by its geographic location, by its population, by the influence it's had in the Middle East for a long time. So neighboring countries from around the Middle East have an interest inside of Iraq.

    “But I will tell you that I think Iraqis themselves are nationalistic in nature, and that's why it's important. A strong Iraq will defend itself against interference from outside countries, and I think as we build a strong Iraq and as we continue to build a strong security mechanism and as we continue to help them economically and diplomatically, that will make it less likely of others from the outside being able to interfere.

    “Now, for the vacuum as we see today, again, I remind everyone is that we still have a significant presence here, and we are not going to—we will not allow undue maligned influence on the Iraqi government as they attempt to form their government. What we're trying to do is provide them the space and time for them to do that, and we will continue to do that post 1 September. We'll still have a significant civilian presence, and again, we'll still have 50,000 troops on the ground here to ensure that this government can be formed by the Iraqis. And that all the other nations respect their sovereignty as they go about forming their government.”
    —General Ray Odierno, commander of U.S. forces in Iraq, interview, “This Week” with Christiane Amanpour, August 8, 2010

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