January 16, 2008

As President Bush travels through the Middle East, the prevailing assumption is that Arab states are primarily focused on the rising Iranian threat and that their attendance at the Annapolis conference with Israel in November was motivated by this threat. …

Many Arab governments are of course concerned about Iran and its role in Iraq, but not for the same reasons as Israel and the United States. Israel sees Iran’s nuclear potential as a direct threat to its security, and its support for Hezbollah and Hamas as a military challenge. Arab governments are less worried about the military power of Hamas and Hezbollah than they are about support for them among their publics. They are less worried about a military confrontation with Iran than about Iran’s growing influence in the Arab world. …

In all this, they see Iran as a detrimental force but not as the primary cause of militant sentiment. Most Arab governments believe instead that the militancy is driven primarily by the absence of Arab-Israeli peace… Last year, King Abdullah II of Jordan delivered an address to a joint session of Congress. His focus was not on Iran or Iraq — or even the hundreds of thousands of Iraqi refugees his small country is painfully hosting. In urging American diplomacy, his message was clear: "The wellspring of regional division, the source of resentment and frustration far beyond, is the denial of justice and peace in Palestine."…

President Bush needs to listen… [e]ven though Gulf Arab governments need the U.S. military umbrella for their security… [i]t is a challenge for these governments to have to continually depend on an America whose foreign policy is rejected by their own publics… Confronting Iran does not solve their dilemma. Arab-Israeli peacemaking does. Most Arabs identify successful American peace diplomacy as the single most important factor in improving their views of the United States. Access the full article>>



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In-Depth Coverage

Original Commentaries

03/11/10
First Reactions  —
03/09/10
Understanding Ankara  —Morton Abramowitz, former U.S. ambassador to Turkey (1989-91); senior fellow, Century Foundation. Interview with Middle East Bulletin.
03/04/10
A Preview of the Elections  —

Setting the Record Straight

Turkey-Israel Ties Stronger than Public Denunciations

“The contours of the new Turkish foreign policy indicate a propensity to distance itself from the West and a quest for enhanced relations with Muslim countries, particularly those located along Turkey’s borders. One clear manifestation of this new policy is the current tensions between Turkey and Israel.”
—Efraim Inbar, director, Begin-Sadat (BESA) Center for Strategic Studies, article, “Israeli-Turkish Tensions and Beyond,” Israel Journal of Foreign Affairs, February 2010versus
  • “Turkey cannot afford to alienate Israel totally either. The ambitions of its foreign policy necessitate that it maintain good and credible relations with all the parties in the region. Neither should it lose its way in intra-Arab squabbles or render its foreign policy hostage to the, at times, delirious reactions of an excitable public. Just as Israel should not allow its current foreign minister’s world view and personality get in the way of safeguarding a critical strategic relation.”
    —Soli Özel, professor of international relations and political science, Istanbul Bilgi University, analysis, “Turkey-Israel Relations: Where to Next?” The German Marshal Fund of the United States, Turkey Series, March 3, 2010
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