The Gulf States
"These commercially flourishing Emirates will see their security shaped in large part by the actions its American ally takes in the coming months and years."Fifteen years ago the office building where the United States Consul General is located dominated downtown Dubai’s skyline. Now it is literally dwarfed by more imposing skyscrapers in the immediate neighborhood. To note that the United Arab Emirates is undergoing change is a vast understatement.
As I look out the window here on the United Arab Emirates (UAE) coast and listen to the television bring news from nearby Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran, and Iraq, I realize all over again how much the United States gains useful perspective when it can see the world, even if briefly, through the sometimes veiled eyes of important partners in the Middle East and Gulf region.
The UAE is at a strategic gateway only a few hours away by plane from the world’s major flashpoints. Visiting Abu Dhabi and Dubai in the week that President Musharraf of Pakistan declared a state of emergency, oil prices flirted with $100 a barrel, and the dollar sank to new lows, underscored to me that the UAE not only sits at a vital geographic crossroad, but it also occupies a pivotal position geopolitically and economically.
These commercially flourishing Emirates will see their security shaped in large part by the actions its American ally takes in the coming months and years. Just as the UAE stands at important crossroads, the United States is at an important geo-strategic junction, facing some of the most daunting international challenges in recent history. Pakistan and Afghanistan, Iraq and Iran, and the simmering Arab-Israeli conflict all are within a short flight from the UAE.
The UAE has lived a lot of history in its twenty-six years of existence. Since 1971, it has been through the 1973 oil boom with its massive socio-economic transformations, the 1979 fall of the Shah of Iran, the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq war, the first Gulf war in 1990, the fallout from the September 11 attacks in 2001, and the Iraq War since 2003. A small country with a diverse population, the UAE is home to 800,000 Emirati citizens and an equal number of Pakistanis, as well as 1.4 million Indians, anywhere from 200,000 to 400,000 Iranians in Dubai, and many other Southeast Asians and other nationalities from around the world.
In the midst of significant events, the UAE and other Gulf states are adapting to use their newfound oil wealth, making careful decisions about diversifying its investment portfolios with an eye on its declining oil and gas reserves. In 1975, three-quarters of GDP was related to oil and gas industries; by 2006, it was less than one-third of GDP. The emirate of Abu Dhabi, where the most significant oil reserves are located, now generates more wealth in return from investments than from oil.
Balancing extreme wealth and rapid growth in a still traditional society means challenges and contradictions abound. Many Emirati women do not have their photographs in passports, while others hold Cabinet posts and staff key government positions. This is a country on the cutting edge of a globalized economy but where political freedoms remain limited and only to the minority among the work-force who are citizens; a country which was home to two of the 9-11 terrorists and now seems to work aggressively to clamp down radical Islamist forces at every turn; where prior to September 2001 significant education charitable funds had gone to extremist Islamic education, including madrassas, and where earlier this week New York University announced a branch of the university would open in Abu Dhabi in 2010.
This is also a country where Americans hear from Emiratis that the potential for Iran gaining nuclear weapons is the single greatest threat the region faces and people in the UAE are prepared to stop Iran by any means necessary. Yet at the same time, many Emiratis say that although they will abide by any international body’s decrees on multilateral sanctions, they do not want to be seen as taking the lead in halting or dampening extensive private commercial activities with Iranians.
While the Emirates’ economic future is steered aggressively from within, albeit with extensive courting from a diverse set of international actors including the United States, its strategic future, like that of many of its Gulf neighbors, appears hugely dependent on directions the United States takes in shaping the strategic security framework throughout southwest Asia in the near-term.
“The future of the region will not be decided internally,” as one Emirati put it frankly. “We are all waiting for two critical decisions from Washington: Whether you will bargain with or bomb Iran; and whether you will stay or withdraw from Iraq, militarily and politically.” The two issues are linked, and not so cleanly. Countries in this key region of the world see U.S. actions in Iraq as effectively taking Iraq out of the equation as a bulwark against Iran, leaving the remaining Gulf states “naked in the sun” to face an increasingly assertive Iran.
In the UAE, one hears desperation for a strong, clearly articulated policy to deal with Iran and a desire for a United States that delivers on its promises. Yet there is also keen awareness of a recent U.S. track record that makes all in the immediate neighborhood skeptical. “You are our insurance company when it comes to our security,” another regional analyst said, “but you haven’t been delivering such a reliable product recently.”
Before this rapidly changing region becomes a neighborhood we no longer recognize, what should the United States do to build and strengthen relationships here? The next generation of leaders in the Gulf is looking pragmatically to the future and they are also looking to the United States for leadership and a comprehensive strategic vision.
The United States must develop such a strategic approach, but it must do so in coordination with these key players in the region. They see the world in a way that we do not from their unique position. We need to learn from them and respect what they have done for us to date in the struggle against global terror networks and in efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan. And we will need to call upon them to do their part going forward; it only makes sense that they have a role in shaping exactly what that is.
We need to have relationships strong and stable enough to talk openly about what works and what doesn’t. As we learn to listen better we will design more effective strategies, landing us in a neighborhood we recognize and in which we are welcome, even when we are not at home.