Blair is even more optimistic than usual. Five months after assuming the post of envoy, he says he’s starting to feel that a change is under way and that things are progressing in a different, more positive, direction. A central change which he says he notes is in the approach of the Israeli defense establishment. According to Blair, Defense Minister Ehud Barak, Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi, Shin Bet security service head Yuval Diskin and many others with whom he has met are becoming more open-minded with regard to the possibility of progress being achieved vis-a-vis the Palestinians. They are still cautious, he says, but are open to persuasion. …
Blair believes that anyone who wants to reach a solution has to understand that just as the Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza are suffering, so too the Israelis’ security concerns are genuinely and deeply felt. He is convinced that no solution will be forthcoming until the sides recognize both of these realities. Blair relates that he always tells people that diplomatic negotiations are important, but that the discussions are not only about territory; the problem is not only land, but also the profile of the state: how it is to be governed, its ability to be a stable neighbor, effectively governed. There are three parallel tracks that have to be engaged simultaneously, otherwise things will not move ahead: political negotiations, creation of a Palestinian capacity for governing, and the taking of steps on the ground. If there is progress in all three areas, it will be possible to find a solution. But anyone who thinks that negotiations are a substitute for creating capabilities, or, similarly, that actions on the ground are of no importance, will never reach a solution. All three are crucial. Accordingly, the solution to the problem is for the capabilities of the PA to be developed gradually, enabling the Palestinians to assume security responsibility and Israel to reduce its military presence. …
However, Blair is not happy with Israel’s performance on the ground. In his view, as important as it is for the Palestinians to demonstrate commitment, it is no less essential for the Israelis to do the same. This is the key to the entire matter, particularly with regard to the illegal outposts. Israel must recognize that this is a serious problem. The practical situation cannot be divorced from the diplomatic talks. If one is discussing territory, and at the same time an illegal outpost is established which entails a seizure of land inside that territory, the Palestinians ask themselves what is going on. Access the full article>>
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