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In-Depth Coverage

Original Commentaries

07/08/08
Planning the Transition  —Ghaith al-Omari, director of advocacy, American Task Force on Palestine; former foreign policy adviser to Palestinian President Abbas. Original Commentary for Middle East Bulletin.
07/07/08
Moving Forward in Lebanon After Doha: Bridging Deep Divides  —Mona Yacoubian, director of the Lebanon Working Group, U.S. Institute of Peace. Original Commentary for Middle East Bulletin.
06/27/08
Dealing with the Challenge of Prisoners  —Brigadier General (Ret.) Ilan Paz, former head of the Israeli Civil Administration in the West Bank (2002-2005). Interview with Middle East Bulletin.

Setting the Record Straight

Israeli-Syrian Peace Could Alter Regional Dynamic

“I think [the Israelis] are making a mistake trying to negotiate with Syria now, because I don’t think Syria has any independent ability to make decisions. Over the past several years, Syria has become functionally a satellite of Iran, so that if the Israelis really wanted to negotiate with somebody, they ought to be in Tehran, not in Damascus. … I think it will be seen as a mistake in their domestic politics, and it certainly wouldn’t fit my cost-benefit analysis of a fruitful place to have discussions.”
—John Bolton, senior fellow, American Enterprise Institute & former U.S. ambassador to the UN, interview with NationalJournal.com, May 23, 2008 versus
  • "An Israeli-Syrian peace would be based on interests … The first thing the Syrians want is the Golan [Heights], but they want other things too. … Syria wants to be defined differently than Iran and come back to the center of the international system. In terms of Israeli interests, I think the first thing would be no all-out warfare. … In addition, an agreement with Syria would include the larger Arab world and not the Assad government alone. Such an agreement would also undermine Hezbollah, Hamas and extreme Islamist movements. … The United States is needed for addressing the Syrian interests, beyond the Golan, including removal of Syria from the ‘axis of evil’ and economic incentives.”
    —Major General (Ret.) Danny Rothschild, former IDF coordinator of activities in the Palestinian territories (1991-95) & president, Israeli Council for Peace and Security, event ,"Peace with Syria," July 14, 2008 (translated by Middle East Bulletin)

    • Middle East Analysis

    Lebanon

    September 19, 2007

    Confessionalism
    Confessionalism is a system that proportionally allocates political power to a country’s communities according to their proportion of the total population. Lebanon’s confessional formula was consecrated following independence from France in 1943. The formula for allocation was revised following the Taif Agreement that ended the civil war in 1989. The nature of the confessional system over time created opportunities for political movements seeking assistance from outside forces to improve their political position.

    Distribution of Political Posts in Lebanon by Religion
    President: Maronite Christian
    Prime Minister: Sunni Muslim
    Speaker of Parliament: Shi’a Muslim
    Deputy Speaker: Greek Orthodox
    Minister of Defense: Druze
    Commander of Armed Forces: Maronite Christian
    Ratio of Muslims to Christians in Parliament: 50/50 (originally 6/5 with a Christian majority, but ratio was revised in the 1989 Taif Agreement)

    Political Leaders in Lebanon
    Emile Lahoud
    President (since 1998)
    President Emile Lahoud has faced increased pressure to resign since the assassination of Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. The pro-Syrian president has said he will stay until his term expires in late 2007.

    Fouad Siniora
    Prime Minister
    A former finance minister and friend of the late PM Rafik Hariri, Siniora was chosen as premier after the victory of anti-Syrian March 14th alliance in the 2005 elections. He promised to continue Hariri’s campaign of reforms, and has proceeded with plans for an international tribunal to investigate Hariri’s assassination. The UN secretary general hopes to appoint judges in the trial by the end of 2007.

    Nabih Berri
    Speaker of the Parliament
    Nabih Berri is a pro-Syrian Shi’a and leader of the opposition Amal party. Berri formed an alliance with Hezbollah during the 2005 elections, and he opposes Hezbollah disarmament.

    Hassan Nasrallah
    Secretary General of Hezbollah
    Nasrallah has been the secretary general of Hezbollah since 1992. Hezbollah has grown considerably under Nasrallah’s leadership, and particularly since Israel’s withdrawal from southern Lebanon in 2000 He has been less successful however in his efforts to build a coalition that could oust the anti-Syrian majority. Hezbollah’s civilian rebuilding efforts since the 2006 conflict with Israel also have been slow, despite Iranian financial backing.

    Michel Aoun
    Leader of Free Patriotic Movement
    Recently returned from a 15 year exile in France, Michael Aoun is a former prime minister of Lebanon and was the leader of the Christian anti-Syrian faction during the Lebanese civil war. While his party bases its support in the Christian middle class. Aoun now has formed an alliance with Syrian-Iranian aligned Hezbollah against the Siniora government, which he claims is corrupt.

    Walid Jumblatt
    Leader of Progressive Socialist Party
    A Druze politician, Jumblatt is a member of the ruling March 14th coalition. In 1983, during the Lebanese civil war, he presided over the sectarian cleansing of Christians from Lebanon’s mountains, but in 2001 he sealed a reconciliation with the Maronite patriarch on behalf of the Druze. Politicians associated with Jumblatt now often receive Christian support. He supported Syria until the death of Hafez al-Assad, and now is a leading advocate for Lebanese sovereignty.