May 30, 2007

Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and Syrian President Bashar Assad (AP)

With the new United Nations Security Council deadline looming in late May, neither side appears willing to relent. While some outside experts have advocated unconditional nuclear talks with Iran, the P-5 see little value in negotiating the nuclear issue while Iran continues to develop its enrichment capacity. Under these circumstances, Iran would have every incentive to drag out the talks while working to achieve its nuclear objectives.

For its part, Iran fears that if it does agree to halt its activities, the P-5 would have their own reason to drag out the talks, keeping Iran’s enrichment programme on ice indefinitely while threatening to re-impose sanctions if Iran were to re-start it. …

For now, Washington is prepared to let diplomacy ‘play out’ because Iran is not making rapid technical progress towards acquiring a nuclear-weapons capability and because Washington believes that its diplomatic strategy is having some effect. Ultimately, however, if Iran begins to reach critical technical thresholds, and diplomatic means fail to persuade Iran to suspend its uranium-enrichment programme, then consideration of military options will come into play, despite all the risks and drawbacks. Access the full report>>



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