Strategically Central Turkey Under Pressure

In the wake of the Iraq debacle, the United States will occupy a position of greatly diminished stature and leverage among the many allies that stepped forward to offer unqualified support immediately after September 11, 2001. No relationship has been more badly damaged in this relatively short period of time, or is in greater need of repair, than the alliance between the United States and Turkey. …

The war has had a profound and disorienting effect on Turkey—the only Muslim nation anchored in the West through bilateral ties with the United States and membership in NATO. In some polls, Turks are reported to have the least favorable public opinion of the United States among countries surveyed… If this negative trajectory is not reversed,Turkey could seek alternative affiliations—most likely with its Islamic neighbors or with Russia—at the expense of its connections to the United States and Europe.

How could such a dramatic rupture with Turkey have occurred? In short, American policymakers ignored or misread Turkish politics, disregarded legitimate Turkish concerns, and launched an invasion of nearby Iraq with substantial negative consequences for Turkish interests… All plausible scenarios for Iraq’s future are viewed with suspicion by Ankara, particularly the growing prospect of an independent Kurdistan… As the United States seeks to disentangle itself from Iraq, it needs to do all that it can to avoid a worst-case scenario between Turkey and the Kurds. Access the full article>>

Two recent Iraq-related events hold special significance for Turkey. One is the terror agreement signed between Turkey and Iraq in Ankara. The other is the resolution adopted by the U.S. Senate on the desirability of a loose federal structure in Iraq.

The agreement signed between the Turkish and Iraqi Interior Ministers on combating PKK presence and activities in Iraq has generally met with skepticism by Turkish commentators… Yet looking at the agreement in a broader context may lead to a different assessment. This is the first time in the post-invasion period that Baghdad has committed itself formally to designating the PKK as terrorist and to fighting it. Such commitment has the merit of improving the international understanding for and the legitimacy of Turkey’s fight against the PKK. … Given the high cost of an intervention into Iraq under the present circumstances, Turkey must first try to engage the Kurdish authorities in Iraq. … The considerable Turkish influence in northern Iraq should be used by Turkey to make Kurdish leaders understand that it is also in their best interest to work with Turkey against PKK terror.

The other event of interest to Turkey is the resolution the U.S. Senate adopted on Iraq… The Senate action is uncalled-for and inappropriate for reasons more than one… [It] gives a freehand and encouragement to all those forces and groups inside and outside Iraq to undermine that country’s territorial integrity and political unity. This part concerns Turkey. Turkey has been working with the U.S. administration to rebuild and stabilize Iraq, with the understanding that Turkey and the U.S.A. are both committed to preserving and protecting Iraq as a united country. Turkey would not and should not tolerate the fragmentation of Iraq. Access the full article>>

With its overwhelming victory in the July 22 parliamentary elections, in which it obtained the support of almost half of the votes cast, the ruling Justice and Development Party (JDP) has consolidated its clear domination of Turkish politics. However, having successfully shown that it could sustain its mass support despite the concerns and hostility of its political opponents and the powerful Turkish military establishment, who are intensely suspicious of its Islamist roots and ultimate intentions, the JDP government now faces fresh challenges, not least with respect to Turkey’s stalled relations with the European Union (EU).

The initiation of accession negotiations with the EU in 2006 helped to undermine accusations that the JDP was leading Turkey away from the West and was one of the major achievements of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan in his first term in office. Not surprisingly, Erdogan declared immediately after his second electoral triumph that his new government would continue to work with determination “to achieve the goal of membership.” …

The reality is that Erdogan is likely to find the task of reinvigorating the accession process more difficult than during his first term. Turkey’s major domestic preoccupations during recent months, sustained opposition to Turkish membership throughout the EU and growing skepticism on the part of the Turkish public about the likelihood of EU membership, have contributed to a perceptible slowing down of the process and will not be easy to reverse. Access the full article>>