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Monday, September 10, 2007
Today's News
- Iran Seeks UN Security Council Seat
- by Shlomo Shamir (Haaretz)
Iran plans to vie for one of the temporary seats on the United Nations Security Council, according to a low-key announcement last week in a routine informational document distributed by the Asia Group of member states.
The same document announced Japan’s candidacy for the seat, which is reserved for the region and will become vacant in September 2009.
Diplomats at UN headquarters here say Iran has little chance of beating Japan, particularly in view of the Security Council sanctions imposed on Iran for refusing to halt its nuclear program.
- Iran Raises Possibility of an Intrusion Into Iraq
- by James Glanz (The New York Times)
In a sharp escalation of a dispute over border fighting, an official Iranian delegation at a diplomatic conference here warned Sunday that if the Iraqi government could not stop militants from crossing into Iran and carrying out attacks, the Iranian authorities would respond militarily.
The Iranian delegation, led by a deputy foreign minister, Mohammad R. Baqiri, also charged that the United States was supporting groups believed to be mounting attacks from Iraqi territory in the Kurdish north.
- Syria: Israel Sent Message Before Flyover
- by Barak Ravid and Yoav Stern (Haaretz)
Damascus received a "calming message" from Jerusalem several hours before Israel’s violation of Syrian airspace early Thursday morning, Syrian Foreign Minister Waleed Mualem told European diplomats.
The diplomats told the Arabic language daily Al-Hayat that, according to Mualem, EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana personally transmitted the message from Prime Minister Ehud Olmert. The message reportedly stated Israel’s intention to withdraw most Israel Defense Forces troops stationed in the Golan Heights in the wake of increasing tension between Syria and Israel in recent months.
- Iran Says Has Deal on Nuclear Plant but Russia Denies
- by Zahra Hosseinian (Reuters)
Iran said on Thursday it had agreed on a timetable with Russia for the start-up of the Islamic state’s first nuclear power plant, local media reported, but an official in Moscow said talks with Tehran were still under way.
Iranian chief nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani was quoted by the state broadcaster and other media as saying a deal was reached with Moscow for the inauguration of the Russian-built Bushehr plant, without giving details on when it might happen.
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Setting the Record Straight
"Washington can try to exercise soft power - through sanctions, resolutions, diplomatic isolation and rougher rhetoric. But the Islamic Republic, especially its radical president and praetorian guard, are accomplished practitioners of hard power. They are unlikely to be overwhelmed by moderate tactics."
–Reuel Marc Gerecht, fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, "Deadly Persian Provocations," Newsweek, September 3, 2007
VS.
"It is important that we continue to explore potential diplomatic openings with Iran — either through our own efforts or those of our allies. Even if such efforts ultimately are not fruitful, they may reduce risks of miscalculation, improve our ability to interpret what is going on in Iran, and strengthen our efforts to enlist the support of key nations."
–Senate Foreign Relations Committee Ranking Member Senator Richard G. Lugar (R-IN), Opening Statement for Hearing on Iran, March 29, 2007
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Time for a Reality Check on Iran
TODAY'S FEATURE
 Diplomats tour the Uranium Conversion Facility outside of Isfahan, Iran (AP)
"Most urgent is to persuade America that it does not have to deal with Iran's nuclear delinquency on its own."
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by The Economist If America and Iran are really intent on talking each other into a fight, the rest of the world can do little to prevent it. But there are ways to reduce the chances of a war by accident. … Mr Bush’s approach to Iran has long been flawed. By appearing to threaten its regime after it had helped America to unseat the Taliban in Afghanistan, he may have confirmed it in its hostility and reinforced its desire for a bomb. More recently America and Iran have come to see each other as rivals for mastery of the post-Saddam Gulf. Their own interest, and the interests of the Middle East, would probably be better served if they explored the possibility of some sort of grand bargain. But that seems impossible if the Iranians think they have a clear run to a nuclear bomb. The region would be a good deal safer if the rest of the world did more to disabuse them. Access the full article>>
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Middle East Analysis
by Shlomo Ben-Ami, former Israeli Foreign Minister (Ynet)
The Arab-Israeli peace process, under America’s patronage, resulted in a series of breathtaking achievements – … Madrid, the Oslo Accords, the peace treaty between Israel and Jordan, a near-agreement with Syria, … Israeli missions in most Arab states. All this constituted a nightmare for Iran, which was feeling increasingly isolated. … Iran, more than it was Israel’s enemy, was an enemy of the possibility of Arab-Israeli reconciliation. …
Iran does not draw its growing regional influence from its military budget, which is still lower than that of its enemies, but rather, from the challenge it presents to the U.S. and Israel by using "soft power."
The best way to undermine Iran’s strategy of creating regional instability is through a comprehensive Arab-Israeli peace accompanied by massive investment in human development. Access the full article>>
by Ray Takeyh, Council on Foreign Relations (The Boston Globe)
Iran’s danger is nowhere more evident than its accelerating nuclear program. Neither America’s veiled threats of military retribution nor a series of United Nations Security Council resolutions seem to distract Iran from its nuclear course. While it is tempting to ascribe Tehran’s defiance to Ahmadinejad, Iran’s nuclear program began in earnest under former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, a pragmatist acclaimed in the West as someone we can do business with. …
Ahmadinejad’s presidency has, in fact, had a measurable impact on life in the Islamic Republic. … Yet Iran’s core foreign policy objectives have not changed, despite the rise of Ahmadinejad and his paranoid style of politics. …
The reality remains that Iran’s quest for nuclear arms and assertion of influence over Iraq makes strategic sense, especially in light of Iran’s historic goal of regional preeminence. Because Iran’s ambitions are based on rational calculation, the United States can deal with it through dialogue. Access the full article>>
by Andrew Exum, Washington Institute for Near East Policy (The Daily Star)
Today, with American soldiers and Marines dying in Iraq from Iranian explosives and at the hands of Iranian-backed militias, voices in Washington are calling for military confrontation with Iran. … In Israel, Lebanon and among the Gulf states, some officials are similarly pressing for the use of American military force against Iran… None … consider how the U.S. military, as an institution, might resist moves that could lead to such action. … Admiral William Fallon, the new commander of U.S. Central Command, has rejected calls for a third carrier group to be sent to the Gulf as a message to the Iranians. War against Iran, he has said, "will not happen on my watch."
Leaving aside the relative merits of a strike against the Iranians, why might America’s military resist such action? … In the event of an American or Israeli strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities, for example, the troops in Iraq, the Gulf and Afghanistan would be in even greater danger than they already are, vulnerable to an Iranian counterattack or, more likely, an Iranian-sponsored terror campaign. … [P]rofessional military officers are more suspicious than ever of think-tank types with theories on how easy military victories can be achieved. As an active-duty U.S. Army officer recently told me: "If I hear one more lawyer with no military experience explain to me how air power alone really can do it this time, I’m going to kill him." …
The important thing is that those wishing to convince the U.S. to take military action against Iran must first convince the military. In light of American troop deployments in and around the Gulf and the continued difficulties in Iraq, that’s going to be a tough sell. Access the full article>>
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Heard on the Street
Senator Chuck Hagel (R-NE), University of Nebraska, February 22, 2007:
“The swirl of Middle East history creates layers upon layers of complexity. That is a reality that is inescapable… To ignore this reality is to risk being trapped by false choices… false choices such as the question, ‘which is worse – Iran with nuclear weapons or war with Iran?’
"These are not our only choices in dealing with the Middle East and Iran. Diplomatic initiatives, UN mandates, regional cooperation, security frameworks, and economic incentives are part of the mix of international possibilities that must be employed to comprehensively address the challenges of the Middle East.
"We will fail to protect and advance America’s interests – in the Middle East and around the world – if we allow ourselves to be trapped in a self-constructed world based not on reality but on flawed assumptions and flawed judgment leading to flawed policy and dangerous miscalculations.”
Background Basics
Centrifuge: The most cost effective way of enriching uranium isotopes, a key step in the production of nuclear fuel. The Iranian Fuel Enrichment Plant in Natanz is designed to produce low-enriched uranium for energy production, but could be modified to produce highly enriched uranium necessary for a nuclear weapon. Such a modification, however, would be apparent to IAEA inspectors.
Just under 2,000: Number of centrifuges operating at the Natanz facility as of August 19th, 2007.
54,000: Total number of centrifuges that the Natanz facility could hold.
37.3 kg: Amount of highly enriched uranium 2,000 P1 centrifuges could produce in one year (based on Carnegie Endowment formula).
28 kg: Amount of highly enriched uranium needed for a nuclear weapon.
5-10 years: IAEA estimated time required for Iran to develop enough highly enriched uranium for a nuclear weapon.
Current Iran-IAEA cooperation: On June 22, 2007, Iran and the IAEA began developing a working plan to address outstanding issues regarding the Iranian nuclear program. Talks were held in Tehran on July 12th, and led to an IAEA visit to the Iranian heavy water reactor in Arak on July 30th. The working plan was released August 27th, 2007, and included Iran’s agreement to allow one year-multiple entry visas to IAEA inspectors and staff. The working paper also set the next discussion of the Natanz inspection mechanisms (known as the “safeguards approach”) for September. Iran remains under UN sanctions for refusing to halt its enrichment program.
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Middle East Progress appreciates the support and cooperation of Americans for Peace Now, Geneva Initiative, Israel Policy Forum, and New Israel Fund.
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